865 
FXUS64 KMAF 260457
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1057 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- A cold front moves in tonight, bringing near to below average temperatures
  on Wednesday. 

- Mild temperatures are expected Thanksgiving Day through
  Saturday, with low (10-30%) rain chances Friday afternoon.

- A stronger front yields colder temperatures by Sunday through at
  least the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Quiet and warm weather is ongoing for West Texas and Southeast New 
Mexico this afternoon. Highs this afternoon are going to top out in 
the upper 60s and low 70s under clear skies (this is about 7-11 
degrees above normal for this time of year). However, an upper-level 
trough is visible on water vapor imagery moving across the Northern 
Plains. This system sends a front down into our area this 
evening/overnight. Breezy northeasterly winds filter in cooler air, 
knocking lows down a couple of degrees relative to this morning's, 
particularly in the northern Permian Basin (upper 30s and low 40s 
for most of the area, upper 20s and low 30s for the northern Basin). 
Temperatures tomorrow will likewise be cooler in the wake up 
tonight's front. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s can be expected 
for most locations (70s persist along the Rio Grande). Winds once 
again become southerly tomorrow evening as ridging starts to build 
in from the west and the post-frontal surface highs moves east. Lows 
tomorrow night look similar to tonight's, albeit a degree or two 
warmer.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The Long Term portion of this forecast gets a bit more interesting. 
Thanksgiving Day looks rather pleasant overall as weak ridging moves 
overhead. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s can be expected 
areawide (about 4-7 degrees above normal). A shortwave swinging down 
from the Northwestern CONUS quickly flattens the ridge and ejects 
down towards our region. A surface low in the lee of the Rockies 
will yield gusty southerly winds Friday ahead of this system, which 
in turn will bring some moisture northward into the eastern Permian 
Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. As a result, low (10-30%) shower and 
thunderstorm chances are maintained for Friday afternoon in these 
areas (no severe weather expected this time around due to limited 
instability). Highs similar to Thursday's can be expected for the 
western half of our region, whereas the eastern half will drop to 
near-normal thanks to increased moisture and persistent cloud cover.

By Saturday night, a much stronger front enters the area. Lows 
Sunday morning dip near or below freezing for most locations, save 
for our far southern zones (and temperatures are still slowly 
trending downward). Highs top out in the upper 40s and low 50s (with 
higher temperatures once again in far southern zones/along the Rio 
Grande). Another trough dives south by the beginning of the week, 
yielding another shot at some cold rain Monday and Tuesday (10-25%). 
It should be noted, however, that ensemble guidance continues to 
convey quite a bit of uncertainty in these chances (a number of 
members show precipitation, but many others do not). In fact, PoPs 
trended down from the previous run of the NBM. In any case, we are 
going to keep a close eye on how these precipitation chances 
continue to trend, as well as system timing and what temperature 
profiles may look like out ahead of the system. Stay tuned for 
updates!

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Winds 
have shifted northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front and have 
become breezy. They are expected to be so for the next several 
hours. Southeasterly winds return to the region by mid-morning/early 
afternoon Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               39  59  38  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 39  59  35  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   47  64  44  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            42  62  42  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           38  54  41  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    33  56  34  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    32  62  33  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     40  59  40  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   40  59  41  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     40  59  36  67 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55