125 
FXUS64 KAMA 251814
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1214 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Dry conditions and no weather related travel impacts are
  expected leading up to and including Thanksgiving day for the
  Panhandles.

- A pattern shift this weekend into next week will likely lead to
  much cooler temperatures and the potential for wintry 
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The current synoptic pattern over the combined Panhandles remains 
conducive for relatively uneventful weather over the next few days. 
Northwest flow aloft aided a cold frontal passage today, which will 
keep winds breezy out of the northeast until the evening hours. 
Tonight will be colder with lows in the 20s, thanks to clearing 
skies and light winds. Tomorrow will be cool and breezy once again 
with highs in the 50s as 850mb temps cool. A tightening sfc pressure 
gradient over the region will promote southwest winds at 10-20 mph 
with slightly higher gusts up to 30 mph. Expect Wed night to be very 
similar to tonight, with low temperatures in the 20s on Thanksgiving 
morning.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The Thanksgiving holiday continues to look marvelous 
meteorologically speaking, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy 
skies, light winds, and highs in the 50s to low 60s. While there 
will be quite a showdown of the football variety in the Lone Star 
State Friday, our weather in the Panhandles is favored to be far 
less quarrelsome. A minor disturbance within zonal flow aloft will
generate a deepening sfc low over eastern Colorado, setting up 
breezy south winds for the Panhandles, and slightly more mild 
highs around 60 degrees. This should be a mostly dry system, but 
can't rule out ~10-15% chances for stray light showers in the far
SE TX Panhandle later Friday. 

Saturday is the slated arrival date of a stout cold front set to 
send a piece of polar air to portions of the Plains. Long range 
models depict a Pacific Northwest trough surging southeast 
through day, pulling down our coldest air of the season by Sunday.
The last day of November leaves us with 40-60% probabilities for 
high temps to stay below freezing across the northern Panhandles, 
and 10-40% chances for central and southern areas. Monday will 
have similar, albeit slightly lower chances to stay below 32 
degrees. Lows are progged to be in the teens and 20s Sun through 
Tue mornings, and if winds are breezy enough, wind chill values 
may go into the single digits those days across northern reaches 
of the forecast area. 

Uncertainty continues to loom regarding the track, timing, and 
overall evolution of a stronger system forecast to impact the region 
next Mon-Tue. Global model guidance trended more progressive with
this system in some overnight runs (especially the 06z GFS), 
which has resulted in less moisture return and lower 
precipitation/snow chances with the morning NBM forecast. However,
12z data is back on similar projections to previous trends 
suggesting the system may arrive to the Panhandles as a deeper 
trough or closed low rather than a broad open wave. The latter 
forecast would likely support sufficient moisture availability to 
go in conjunction with sub-freezing temperature profiles, 
conducive for low snow chances for the Panhandles as early as
Sunday, but more likely Mon-Tue. Ensemble outputs still vary 
greatly, and any shift in the system's evolution will lead to 
changes in forecast expectations. Bottom line: this is a very 
typical winter weather forecast for the Panhandles in the sense
that we probably won't have very much confidence until later this
week into the weekend.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hrs.
Winds will be breezy this afternoon out of the north-northeast at
15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds die down overnight before
settling out of the south towards the end of the period.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38