756 
FXUS64 KMAF 250810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
210 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Drier weather and mild temperatures continue early this week. 

- A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night and will
  bring near to below average temperatures on Wednesday.

- Pleasant conditions and mild temperatures are expected
  Thanksgiving Day through Saturday before cooler temperatures
  return late this weekend. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Warm, chillier, and then milder as strong troughing over the central 
CONUS assists in rapid development of a strong cold front followed 
by mid to upper ridging building back by Thanksgiving Day. A mostly 
clear early morning view is apparent on VIS/IR satellite imagery, 
indicating surface high pressure and mid to upper ridging remains in 
control. Another day of westerly downsloping winds and mostly sunny 
skies yields temperatures similar to yesterday but a few degrees 
warmer, with upper 60s to lower 70s F, upper 50s to lower 60s F 
higher elevations, and mid 70s to lower 80s F along the Rio Grande 
into Terrell County. However, winds shift to northwesterly and then 
northeasterly later this afternoon through this evening as a strong 
cold front moves through. As a result of the cold front passage, 
occasional gusty winds are forecast during this time period, mainly 
for the SE NM plains into the Upper Trans Pecos. With advection of 
colder and drier air and dew point temperatures in the 20s F 
building southwest of the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau as 
well as over northern Lea County and northern Permian Basin tonight, 
overnight cooling will be enhanced. This will lead to lows falling 
near to below freezing for Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills 
as well as Guadalupes and northern Lea County into northwest Permian 
Basin. However, continued gusty northeast winds are likely to reduce 
efficiency of cool air drainage. 

CAA continues tomorrow for the day before Thanksgiving, providing 
one more chilly period before ridging in the mid to upper air 
pattern leads to resumed moderating temperatures. There is a high 
probability in ensembles (70% to 90%) and forecast grids that highs 
struggle to climb above 60 F for much of Lea County and the Permian 
Basin, and above 65 F for locations north of the Rio Grande basins. 
For the Rio Grande basins and along the Rio Grande, highs only in 
the mid 60s to lower 70s F are forecast in forecast grids, but 
ensemble probabilities indicate a moderate (40% to 50%) chance of 
highs remaining in the lower to mid 60s F even that far south. 
Higher elevations of the Guadalupes and Delawares have a moderate to 
high probability (45% to 65%) of not rising above 50F. Dew point 
temperatures remain in the 30s F tomorrow night despite rising a few 
degrees as light southerly winds resume under renewed ridging. Highs 
similar to tonight but a few degrees cooler and falling farther into 
the mid 30s F as far south as the Upper Trans Pecos and southeast 
Permian Basin are forecast. These low but not extremely low dew 
point temperatures will continue to maintain a 20F to 25F diurnal 
range as temperatures moderate through the Thanksgiving Holiday. 
Still, models are converging on troughing over the western and 
central CONUS later in the week reinforcing another push of colder 
air. For more details, see the long term discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The upper low that initially brought Tuesday night's strong cold 
front tracks from the Great Lakes toward the northeast into Canada
Thursday. Flow aloft remains out of the northwest over our region
through Thanksgiving evening, as a ridge builds in from the west.
At the surface, the high behind the cold front translates from 
north Texas eastward Thursday afternoon, bringing the return of 
southerly and southeasterly winds. Temperatures Thanksgiving 
morning start off in the 30s to mid 40s, then warm into the mid 
60s to low 70s (mid 70s near the Rio Grande). 

Upper-ridging begins to flatten out Friday, eventually merging with 
a long-wave trough that looks to span across most of the CONUS over 
the weekend. As a result, flow aloft becomes zonal Friday and 
temperatures both Friday and Saturday top out in the 60s and 70s. A 
short-wave disturbance introduces the chance for some isolated 
shower/storm development Friday afternoon over the Permian Basin and 
Lower Trans Pecos. Of course, this depends on whether the 
disturbance can coincide with sufficient moisture. Saturday, models 
indicate another storm system taking shape near the west coast, 
eventually developing into an upper low that digs into the Desert 
Southwest early next week. The developing system steers upper flow 
out of the southwest as early as Saturday evening. Surface lee 
troughing brings a cold front down into our CWA late Saturday 
afternoon into Sunday morning, dropping highs back into the 60s for 
most Sunday afternoon. Moisture ahead of the aforementioned system 
may combine with lift to bring about some rain chances across the 
region Sunday night into Monday. Again, this depends on the system's 
setup and characteristics, which have been quite uncertain within
model data lately. In any case, temperatures heading into 
December look to trend much cooler than what we've seen recently. 
Keep posted for additional information in the coming days!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR continues with light west winds. Cold front arrives late in
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  39  59  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 71  38  61  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   78  47  65  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            74  42  64  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           61  37  55  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    69  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    68  33  62  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     72  40  59  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   71  41  59  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     72  40  59  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29