965 
FXUS63 KIND 250256
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
956 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain expected tonight through Tuesday night

- Turning colder beginning Wednesday into next weekend 

- Watching Saturday into the following week for strong storm systems 
  to bring rain, snow, and large temperature swings to Indiana

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments made 
to POPs. Latest KIND radar imagery depicts rain mainly confined to 
far NW portions of central Indiana at this time. This is where the
strongest forcing from an approaching shortwave is overlapping
with sufficient moisture. Expect rain coverage to continue 
increasing through the overnight as the shortwave moves in. Look 
for widespread precipitation by late tonight thanks to stronger
mid-upper level forcing. Extensive cloud cover, rain, and 
southeasterly surface flow will help to limit diurnal cooling. 
Temperatures are only expected to cool a few degrees with lows 
ranging from the mid 40s to near 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions will persist through the 
remainder of the afternoon. Some weak lift may produce some 
sprinkles or light rain, mainly in the far southwest/west. Will keep 
some low PoPs there.

Tonight, an upper trough will approach the area from the west, and 
an area of surface low pressure will move into Illinois. A surface 
trough/warm front will move north into central Indiana. Upper and 
low level jets will also move into the area.

The low level jet will bring in additional moisture. The lift from 
the above features combined with the plentiful moisture will bring 
rain to central Indiana. Current timing of the most coverage of rain 
is overnight, when the low level jet kicks in. Will go high PoPs all 
areas. Instability remains south of the area, so will continue to 
not mention thunder.

Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s.

Stronger lift and deeper moisture will exit the area to the east 
during the morning as the upper trough and surface low exit to the 
east. Will have likely or higher PoPs early in the day over the 
eastern two-thirds of the area, with PoPs then diminishing from west 
to east during the morning.

Low level moisture will linger through Tuesday afternoon. There 
looks to be some weak lift in this layer, which should result in 
drizzle from time to time.

Warm advection should push temperatures into the middle 50s to near 
60.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

A significant pattern change is expected this week.

Synoptic analysis shows a progressive split flow pattern over the 
CONUS. Flow tends to diverge over the intermountain west before re-
converging over the Midwest. A vort max within the southern jet axis 
is currently ejecting into the Plains, and will be the source for 
the rainfall expected tonight into tomorrow. This system is expected 
to strengthen substantially over the Great Lakes, driving a potent 
cold front southward on Wednesday. Deep troughing then takes hold 
over the eastern third of the CONUS which persists into the weekend.

Wednesday into Thursday

Of particular interest is Wednesday's cold front. This front will be 
the first stage of our pattern change, with scattered showers along 
the front itself and strong cold air advection and gusty winds 
behind it. Wednesday's highs likely peak before sunrise, falling 
continuously through the day. Combined with winds in the 20-30mph 
range, it will feel rather unpleasant. Additionally, some scattered 
flurries are possible Wednesday since cold air advection aloft will 
lead to some low-level instability.

Winds remain on the breezy side through Thanksgiving as a relatively 
tight MSLP gradient persists across the Midwest, though we can be 
thankful that it does not appear to be as windy as Wednesday. That 
may be of little consolation since highs may struggle to reach 
freezing. Wind chills into the 20s even during the afternoon appears 
likely.

Friday through Sunday

Troughing and cooler than average temperatures are expected to 
continue into the weekend. Simultaneously, a storm system is modeled 
to take shape out west as a shortwave trough comes ashore over the 
Pacific Northwest late Thursday. After that, the situation becomes 
tricky with guidance diverging considerably. A wide range of 
scenarios are possible, ranging from a warming trend with rain 
showers to continued cold with accumulating snowfall. The eventual 
outcome will be determined by how the western trough evolves.

The GFS, for instance, generally allows the trough to dig southward 
with slow progression eastward. This allows the system to lift 
northward later with broad warm flow ahead of it. This would bring 
about a warmer and rainier solution for much of Indiana, with 
perhaps some snow at onset or further north. On the contrary, the 
ECMWF/GEM take the shortwave and allow it to dive southeastward 
within the flow around the larger and retreating eastern trough. 
This would allow less in the way of warm air advection ahead of the 
system and thus lead to a snowier solution.

Taking a look at the various teleconnections we see a generally 
neutral trending negative PNA, with neutral AO/NAO. Negative PNA 
typically favors persistent western troughing / eastern ridging, 
which both the GEFS and EPS ensembles do show later in the forecast 
period. Unfortunately, this would mainly be after our potential 
storm system which occurs during the transition from troughing to 
ridging over the eastern US. Though that does point to a gradual 
warming trend after the weekend storm with a potentially active 
storm track remaining in place into December.

For now, both sets of guidance are in decent agreement showing an 
initial round of snow Friday night/early Saturday with the first 
push of warm air advection. Model uncertainty increases thereafter, 
though we'll maintain a slow transition to mainly rain until 
guidance comes into agreement on how strong and prolonged the warm 
air advection is. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 631 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Impacts:

- Rain developing this evening with deteriorating conditions to IFR 
  and lower tonight at all sites

- LIFR or worse conditions possible at all sites late tonight into 
  Tuesday morning

Discussion: 

A system will bring rain tonight into Tuesday morning, with drizzle 
possible after the rain ends Tuesday. Conditions will deteriorate to 
IFR and lower overnight, with these conditions continuing Tuesday. 
LIFR or worse conditions are possible at all sites late tonight into 
Tuesday morning before ceilings and visibilities begin to improve. 

Additional showers are expected Tuesday evening as a cold front 
approaches the region. Southeast winds tonight will veer to south 
and then southwest on Tuesday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Melo