336 
FXUS64 KMAF 240824
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
224 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Drier weather and mild temperatures are expected early this
  week,

- A strong cold front around midweek brings near to below average
  temperatures to the area by Thanksgiving. 

- A gradual warming trend begins Thanksgiving through the
  remainder of the week ahead of another storm system. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning depicts strong to severe 
storms over far eastern Stockton Plateau into southeasternmost 
Permian Basin. These storms are moving east and will clear the 
area later this morning, following passage of a Pacific cold front
and departure of an upper storm system providing lift, moisture, 
and instability for these storms. As the Pacific cold front moves 
through, winds will shift from southerly to westerly and become 
breezy, especially over Guadalupes and Delawares into Marfa 
Plateau. This wind shift will be accompanied by dew point 
temperatures decreasing from the 40s F western higher terrain and 
50s and 60s F farther east, to the 30s F western higher terrain 
and 40s F farther east. With this push of dry air, skies will 
clear from west to east today. CAA behind the Pacific cold front 
will be offset by downsloping winds and ensuing adiabatic warming 
to result in temperatures near or a few degrees warmer than 
yesterday. Therefore, we expect 50s F higher elevations, mid 60s 
to lower 70s F, and upper 70s to lower 80s F along Rio Grande into
Terrell County. Tonight, skies remain mostly clear and dew point 
temperatures nearly everywhere fall into the 30s F, enhancing 
overnight cooling and allowing lows to once again fall into the 
30s F western higher terrain and surrounding foothills and basins,
northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, and 40s F 
elsewhere. 

Tuesday sees continuous mostly clear skies and dew point 
temperatures below 40 F, so similar high temperatures to Monday are 
forecast. However, with troughing developing over the northern CONUS 
and rapidly pushing a strong cold front from the northern 
Intermountain West/Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, winds 
shift from northwest to north/northeast by evening as dew point 
temperatures fall even farther into the 20s F over western higher 
terrain and northern Lea County into Permian Basin. Therefore, lows 
Tuesday night will fall at least a few degrees cooler than Monday 
night, approaching near to below freezing Davis Mountains and 
surrounding foothills as well as northern Lea County into northwest 
Permian Basin, mid to upper 30s F Culberson County, Upper Trans 
Pecos, and rest of SE NM plains into central Permian Basin, and 40s 
F elsewhere. A mix of milder and cooler weather is in store for the 
rest of this week with little to no rain chances until next weekend. 
Read the long term discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

As mentioned above, upper-level troughing looks to reside 
overhead Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. The 
associated surface low near the Great Lakes region will help send 
a cold front down into our CWA Tuesday evening and into Wednesday
morning. Temperatures around sunrise on Wednesday hover near to 
slightly below the freezing mark within most of our northern 
counties, with upper 30s to mid 40s for almost everyone else. 
Highs Wednesday top out in the mid to upper 50s over the Permian 
Basin, southeast New Mexico, and much of the higher terrain, while
60s are forecast elsewhere. Thursday, upper-level ridging begins 
to gradually build back in from the west, allowing temperatures 
to warm up a touch. Highs on Thanksgiving Day are forecast to 
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
 
Flow aloft becomes zonal to southwesterly within a long-wave trough 
late in the week as another upper-level storm system begins to take 
shape near the west coast. A warming trend continues Friday and 
Saturday ahead of this system, with highs in the 70s slowly covering 
more area. Lee troughing near the Panhandle looks to send another 
cold front into our region Sunday. However, long-range models show 
quite a bit of variance in exact arrival and impacts of this system. 
Therefore, this will be something to keep an eye on over the next 
several days. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Latest observations/satellite imagery shows stratus has developed
across the Permian Basin, resulting in IFR cigs at KMAF. Over the
next few hours, surface flow is forecast to veer to west,
advecting in drier air and scattering cigs/vsbys out to VFR.
Elsewhere, VFR will prevail next 24 hours in westerly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  41  73  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 71  39  71  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   81  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            74  45  75  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           59  41  61  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    68  39  69  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    65  32  68  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     72  44  73  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   70  44  72  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     71  39  72  38 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99