095 
FXUS63 KFGF 232310
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
510 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm watch is in effect for Tuesday and Wednesday 
  with a 70% chance for minor (advisory type) impacts to holiday
  travel.

- Below average temperatures arrive after Wednesday, with a 
  more active precipitation pattern possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

High clouds continue across the region late this afternoon
following record breaking temperatures across the region. Winds
will diminish overnight with no weather impacts expected other
than subfreezing temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...Synopsis...

The pattern is about to become much more active with an upper 
low centered near the four corners region ejecting east into the
mid Mississippi Valley as the southeast CONUS ridge continues 
to appear weaker and less amplified by the day. As this happens 
a northern stream wave (currently still offshore the PNW) will 
track east across the rockies sliding slightly south across the 
northern plains as it becomes negatively tilted and deepens over
Minnesota and the upper great lakes. A slightly less complex 
interaction than previously forecast perhaps but crucial 
nonetheless to the eventual track. Behind this system much 
colder air follows this system as afternoon highs Wednesday only
reach the lower to middle 20s. Reinforcing cold air brings 
temps down further as we head into Thursday and Friday, with 
another chance for precipitation heading into the weekend.

- Winter Storm Watch

Picture you are driving from your house in the country to your 
in- laws in the city, snow is falling and you can intermittently
see the next shelterbelt in between surges of wind driving down
visibility for 10-15 seconds at a time, roads are average for 
the winter season with a little slush and the tips of the the 
grass are still poking through the 1-2" of snow that has already
accumulated on non paved surfaces giving some contrast to focus
on and keep you between the ditches. Overall it feels like a 
slightly worse than average driving day in the region but this 
time you happen to be traveling for Thanksgiving and are in a 
slight rush because you dont want to spend more time at the in-
laws than you have to so you're already running a tad late. If 
that sounds like a bad day then you probably arent looking 
forward to Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday. If that sounds 
manageable then you are probably eager for this first genuine 
snowfall of the season.

Okay enough story telling, as this northern wave slides across 
our area rain will initially fall for areas south of HWY 2 with 
snow for northern areas and a changeover to all snow for the 
entire area by Tuesday evening. As winds increase on the 
backside of the passing low between noon on Tuesday and midnight
visibility will occasionally drop to 1/2 mile mainly in open 
areas. A few concerns arise with amounts however given warm 
preceding ground temperatures, near freezing air temperatures, 
and a good chunk of this event occuring during daylight for most
areas. All these factors combined should limit actual 
accumulations especially on paved surfaces initially. If 4-6 
falls maybe expect 2-4" to actually stick. Knowing that tidbit 
this will be a heavy wet snow so even those couple inches still 
be less than fun to shovel. As the low continues to inflect in 
southern Minnesota Tuesday night deformation on the NW side of 
the low should promote some mesoscale banding (not being well 
resolved by models) in north central Minnesota with heavier snow
rates of > 1"/hr having the highest likelihood of reaching the 
typical 6" threshold for warning impacts for areas from Mahnomen
to Park Rapids and Bemidji eastward into the arrowhead. Overall
the current Winter Storm Watch in effect more so as an advanced
messaging tool for poor holiday travel rather than a slam dunk 
downstream upgrade to warning for snowfall. Expect numerous 
counties currently in the watch to receive less than 6" of snow 
(sans the area mentioned above) and to only be upgraded to an 
advisory.

- Colder weather on the way

Looking into Thursday and Friday, much colder temperatures are 
expected as highs struggle to reach the low 20s on Thursday. 
Several reinforcing surges of cold air are expected through the 
end of the week, along with a chance for additional snowfall as 
we head into the weekend. At this time, guidance is showing a 
large range of potential solutions, with generally low 
confidence in a single scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Winds will diminish and remain generally below 10 knots for the
entire TAF period, with slowly changing directions at times
through the day tomorrow. Skies will remain VFR despite ongoing
cloud cover across the area. Clearing is expected tomorrow
before the biggest aviation impacts come just after the TAF
period ends as a storm system approaches from west to east
bringing snow potential after the end of the TAF period. As this
system approaches, ceilings will fall during the afternoon
tomorrow but should remain VFR through the end of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings may arise at DVL just before the end of
the TAF period but most guidance keeps this west until after the
TAF period ends.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 934 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 23:
KFAR: 54/1984
KPKD: 52/1908

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday 
     night for NDZ016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday 
     afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday 
     night for MNZ001>003-006>009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch/TT
AVIATION...Perroux
CLIMATE...TT