836 
FXUS65 KBOU 232126
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
226 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES... 
 
- Light snow in the mountains and foothills mainly south of I-70
  and crest of Palmer Divide this evening. Minimal accumulations 
  expected.

- Light rain through early Monday morning for the plains,
  especially the eastern half.
 
- Becoming windy Monday afternoon to Tuesday, and turning colder.

- Some moderation with diminishing chances of mountain snow 
  through Thanksgiving. 

- First taste of winter weather next weekend, with a chance of 
  snow for the mountains and plains. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 120 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Current satellite imagery shows the upper level low over northern
New Mexico/southwestern Colorado, with light showers ongoing in 
Park county and southern plains. Expect light snow for elevations 
above 7000 feet (with rain/snow mix between 6500 and 7000 feet) 
through late tonight. Snowfall amounts will range from T-3" for
areas along and south of I-70. Highest amounts will be confined to
ridgetops and high passes, with slick roads expected this evening
and Monday morning. Due to diabatic cooling, some of the higher 
elevations along the Palmer Divide could see snow accumulating on
grass tonight, but generally expect less than an inch 
accumulation if that pans out. 

For the plains, rain showers will persist in the southern and 
eastern plains through Monday morning. Short range guidance still 
favors the bulk of precipitation for the eastern plains. 
Ensemble's 25th-75th QPF percentiles range between 0.1"-0.5", but 
still can't rule out a narrow band of 0.75" or slightly higher due
to frontogenetical forcing under the deformation zone. Due to the
track of this system, there will be a distinct cut off in 
precipitation amounts towards Denver metro/I-25 corridor and 
northern plains, with about half of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble 
solutions now showing no precipitation west of DIA. Best case 
scenario would be a few light rain showers that wet the ground. 

Flow aloft will turn northwesterly Monday afternoon as a fast-
moving shortwave travels just north of the forecast area. Light
orographic snow showers are possible in the northern mountains
Monday night into Tuesday morning. However, with the lack of
moisture availability and better forcing north of us, minimal snow
accumulations are expected, with minor travel impacts. The concern
for the strong winds (>60 mph) has continued to diminish. Most 
likely, we will still be windy along ridge tops and the Cheyenne 
Ridge, with gusts up to 45 mph possible at times. The typical wind
prone areas adjacent to the foothills will also be breezy Monday 
afternoon through early Tuesday morning. 

A cold front associated with the upper level shortwave will travel
across the area overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. This
will bring morning lows to the 20s to low 30s over the plains and
teens to low 20s in the mountains and valleys. Below normal 
temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid
40s (20s to 30s in the high country). Wednesday will be the 
coldest morning of the week, with most of forecast area waking up 
to temperatures below 20 degrees. However, we will begin warming 
up for the later half of the week as a ridge builds back over the 
southwest United States. Expect seasonal temperatures on Wednesday
and about above normal temperatures (mid to upper 50s) for 
Thanksgiving and Friday. While most of the forecast area will 
remain dry, embedded shortwaves could produce light orographic 
snow showers in the northern mountains. 

Holiday travel could be impacted this weekend as we likely get 
our first true taste of winter. Ensemble guidance has continued to
trend towards a system bringing colder temperatures and a chance 
of snow for the mountains and plains. However, there are still 
discrepancies between models and model runs on the track and 
evolution of the upper level low. Since yesterday, guidance has 
trended towards a faster track, so we could see precipitation by 
early this weekend, as well as an earlier arrival of cold air for
Saturday. Forecast highs have trended down in this period, with
potential for highs to only be in the 20s and 30s, with Sunday
having the higher probabilities of the coldest temperatures. Stay
tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1050 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will generally have a
light (<10 kts) northerly/northeasterly component through this 
evening. Guidance has continued to shift precipitation to the east
of the airports, however can't rule out a shower or two passing 
over. If that happens, ceilings could reach down to 4000 feet.
Decided to keep the PROB30 in the TAF for now, but wouldn't be
surprised if it gets removed later. Expect NW to W winds overnight
with decreasing cloud cover. We will start out tomorrow with 
light VRB winds before downslope winds up to 15 kts mix into the
TAF sites by 19Z/20Z.  

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MAI