866 
FXUS62 KGSP 231028
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
528 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry but mild high pressure remains over the area through Monday. A 
moist cold front will cross the area in the Wednesday time frame, 
ushering in much cooler temperatures behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1101 PM Saturday: Persistent split flow regime continues to 
dominate the synoptic pattern across the country with a belt of 
perturbed northern stream westerlies draped from British Columbia to 
the Great Lakes into New England. Farther south, a lead shortwave 
trough within the southern stream is quickly sliding off the 
Carolina coast with a trailing cutoff closed upper low spinning over 
the Desert Southwest. A trough dropping through the Great Lakes has 
helped push a surface cold front through the area with dry and cool 
advection ushering in a cooler airmass. While cooler, temperatures 
will still be a good bit above average for late November, just not 
challenging record highs. Surface high pressure sliding across the 
Great Plains will become centered over the Appalachians Sunday into 
Sunday night. At least some degree of wind will keep the boundary 
layer weakly mixed tonight with lows in the low 40s to low 50s. 
Afternoon highs will warm into the low 60s to low 70s beneath mostly 
sunny skies for a rather pleasant day. Radiational cooling is 
expected to maximize Sunday night into Monday morning as the 
boundary layer decouples in the presence of calm winds and clear 
skies. This should allow temperatures to fall into the mid 30s to 
mid 40s by daybreak Monday morning with a few instances of low 30s 
not out of the question in favored cool drainage areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EST Sunday: High pressure over the area Monday slides 
east Monday night as a cold from approaches from the west. Dry 
conditions continue but increasing clouds expected in the developing 
deep southwesterly flow. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. 
Lows will be around 10 degrees above normal. 

A short wave associated with a dampening upper low moving by to our 
north crosses the area Tuesday. This will push a cold front toward 
the area. A wave of low pressure moves along the front. Deep 
moisture and forcing are expected, bringing categorical to likely 
rain chances into the area. There could be a weak CAD develop 
Tuesday and the precip moves in. A stronger short wave rotating 
around and upper low moving into the Great Lakes crosses the area 
Wednesday. This pushes the front into and across the area. There 
area still some timing differences, but the guidance does appear to 
be trending to a later Wednesday FROPA. As a result, the guidance 
all now show sbCAPE into the 500 J/kg range, which is near the 
muCAPE values and higher than yesterday's guidance showed. Ensemble 
means are also showing this increase, although they do keep the 
chance of sbCAPE greater than 500 J/kg on the low side. Bulk shear 
increases into the 40 to 50 kt range. This could indicate and 
increased potential for some severe storms, but uncertainty remains. 
Obviously, this will be monitored as the day approaches. With the 
forcing, deep moisture, and convective potential, some heavy rain is 
also possible. The dry antecedent conditions will help limit the flood 
threat, which will also be watched. 

Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees above normal where the CAD 
develops and potentially 10 degrees above normal outside of the CAD 
or if the CAD doesn't develop. Lows Tuesday night will be 15 to 20 
degrees above normal, keeping the precip all liquid. Highs Wednesday 
could be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, depending on frontal and 
convective evolution.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Sunday: Heights fall Thursday as a secondary short 
wave rotates around the upper low and across the area. A flat ridge 
moves in Friday then moves east Saturday as a trough moves into the 
central CONUS. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure builds 
into the area Thursday and Friday, then moves east Saturday as 
another cold front approaches from the west. Saturday looks to 
remain dry at this time even as a moist southwesterly flow develops 
and clouds increase. Lows Thursday will be near to slightly below 
normal with highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Lows and highs 
Friday and Saturday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals 
through the TAF period. A few patches of mid-level stratus are 
apparent this morning, but ceilings remain high enough that no 
restrictions are expected. Clouds should clear through the morning 
with mostly clear skies prevailing through the remainder of the 
period. Winds will be light out of the north today with the 
potential for a few Upstate sites to see a brief shift to out of the 
south/southwest this afternoon. Winds will be light to calm 
overnight as high pressure settles over the region. 

Outlook: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue thru Monday with the 
potential for mountain valley fog/low stratus each morning. Shower 
and thunderstorm chances and associated restrictions, return Tuesday 
into Wednesday as a moist cold front moves into our area.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW