422 
FXUS63 KMQT 230802
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
302 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow mix lake effect showers end over the east today.

- Lake effect snow and wind may impact the Thanksgiving holiday
  weekend. Travelers and interested parties should continue to
  monitor the forecast as details become more clear over the
  coming week.

- There is a 50-60% chance for Gale Force and 20% chance for
  Storm Force winds on Lake Superior during the middle of next
  week. Light Freezing Spray is possible during this time period
  too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

A shortwave low over Ontario early this morning is continuing to 
dive-down towards the St. Lawrence Seaway today, allowing for light 
lake effect rain and snow showers to continue over at least the 
eastern U.P. until this afternoon as shortwave ridging builds in. 
Temperatures this morning have been warmer across most of the area 
than what we saw yesterday morning, with many spots in the west and 
east not getting below freezing yet as of the time of this writing 
(around 2 AM EST). However, a cold pool that's developed over the 
central U.P. has allowed temperatures to tank into the upper 20s in 
the Arnold/Watson area as well as northern Menominee and Delta 
counties. As ridging continues to build into the area from the west 
this morning, we could see lows drop down to around freezing in the 
interior west before sunrise. The rest of the U.P. outside of the 
central looks to mostly stay above freezing, preventing any snowfall 
from accumulating (and melting any snowfall that stuck around from 
yesterday). As skies clear out and warm air advection occurs today, 
expect highs to soar into the 40s across the area, bringing pleasant 
Fall conditions to the U.P. While a weak shortwave low riding the 
ridge looks to pass over the west today, thinking the dry air in the 
lower levels will prevent any precipitation from hitting the ground 
(90+% chance of no measurable precipitation from this weak 
shortwave). While troughing deepens across our region tonight, no 
precipitation is expected as the lowest 5 to 10 kft of the 
atmosphere looks to be pretty dry. Nevertheless, the mid-level cloud 
cover could help insulate the area a tad, keeping lows in the U.P. 
in the 30s, with the coldest temperatures just around freezing. Warm 
air advection continues into Monday, with high temperatures looking 
to be the warmest of the period thanks to 850mb temperatures of 3 to 
6C and somewhat dry conditions in the lowest levels of the 
atmosphere. However, I do have some reservations on whether highs 
into the lower 50s will be realized as mid-level cloud cover is 
expected to remain throughout the daylight hours and there may be a 
SCT to BKN cloud deck at around 1 kft or less; if the lower cloud 
deck is thicker i.e. following the NAM suite, then I'd expect highs 
on Monday to be closer to what we will see today; if not, than we 
could see some spots around 50F or potentially even a little warmer.

Our attention then turns to two shortwave lows, one lifting from the 
Southern Plains/Colorado and the other one digging from southern 
Alberta through the Northern Plains, phasing with one another and 
creating a deepening low over the Upper Great Lakes by the middle of 
next week. Rainfall associated with the phasing shortwaves looks to 
begin around Monday night/Tuesday, with precipitation amounts 
looking to be pretty light (just a few hundreths every 6 hours or 
so) across most of Upper Michigan. Looking at the latest model runs, 
it seems like guidance has trended the low a little bit further 
south in its track, with most solutions now bringing the sfc low 
through southern Lake Superior at around 991mb by Wednesday. In 
addition, the low seems to not be as transient in the deterministic 
Euro as it previously was, with the low now not leaving the lake for 
Ontario and northern Quebec until Wednesday evening. What this 
implies is that we may see rainfall initially across the area turn 
to lake enhanced snowfall from west to east Tuesday night through 
Wednesday, with the dry slot of the low potentially bringing a quick 
cessation to precipitation over the central and east (and 
potentially west if the low moves further north and west) late 
Tuesday night into Wednesday before a transition over to lake 
enhanced snowfall. Some the snowfall could be heavy at times as the 
TROWAL moves overhead in addition to the cold air advection cycling 
in from behind the low increasing latent heat release from Lake 
Superior, allowing for potential precipitation banding to occur. 
This looks to be greatest over the NW wind snow belts, particularly 
over the west where upslope flow may also come into play (the 
European ensemble is highlighting anomalously high snowfall amounts 
for the western U.P. Tuesday night and Wednesday). In addition to 
the snowfall, strong winds are expected behind the low, with NW 
gusts up to 40 mph or greater possible (40 to 50% chance according 
to the NBM, with the highest probabilities over the Keweenaw and 
east near Lake Superior). As the snowfall goes from wet to dry and 
fluffy with time Tuesday night through Wednesday and Wednesday 
night, the high winds may create visibility problems in the NW wind 
snow belts, especially near Lake Superior and over the Keweenaw. As 
the low leaves the region, cold air advection and troughing continue 
across the Upper Great Lakes through Thanksgiving into Friday, 
allowing for lake effect snow showers to continue impacting the NW 
wind snow belts. With winds looking to remain fairly gusty through 
Thanksgiving, people traveling for Thanksgiving may want to keep an 
eye on the forecast as heavy snowfall and blowing snow could create 
hazardous driving conditions leading up to, during, and just after 
the holiday.

While lake effect snow showers are expected to lighten up for this 
upcoming weekend after Thanksgiving, expect the colder than normal 
temperatures to persist as high temperatures are projected to remain 
below freezing. We also could see another system hit us with 
additional accumulating snowfall late this upcoming weekend or early 
next week as polar air moves towards the Desert Southwest and Gulf 
air tries to move north towards the Central and Eastern U.S. 
However, with the track of the jet stream trending further south 
than previously predicted, potential snowfall chances from any low 
pressures are increasing at the expense potential rainfall chances. 
Be sure to keep an eye on the extended forecast as another 
accumulating snowfall event could hit the U.P. sometime near the end 
of the extended period or just beyond it. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

MVFR conditions are expected through the night at CMX with lake 
effect clouds pushing across the Keweenaw. Drier air moving into the 
area should scatter out the lower cloud deck Sunday mid-morning with 
VFR conditions thereafter. For IWD and SAW guidance has been 
suggesting MVFR this evening but it has not been materializing. The 
latest NBM has decreased the probabilities for MVFR, so have handled 
this with a TEMPO at SAW for the next few hours behind the passing 
front. Gusty winds (25-30kt) will continue at CMX into Sunday 
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Northwest winds of 25 kts over the western lake to gales of 35 kts 
(occasionally up to 40 kts) over the eastern lake early this 
morning slowly dwindle back down to light winds of 20 kts or less 
again by late this afternoon as shortwave ridging skirts back over 
the area. However, as troughing deepens over the lake tonight into 
Monday, expect winds to pick up from the south and southwest to 20 
to 25 kts, before dwindling back down to 20 kts or less again by 
late Monday as very weak ridging moves back overhead. Don't expect 
the weaker winds to last all that long, as two shortwave lows, one 
digging from southern Alberta through the Northern Plains and the 
other lifting from the Southern Plains/Colorado, phase with one 
another over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday. 
As this occurs, expect the winds to increase from the northeast to 
north Tuesday into Tuesday night. As the low moves through and 
immediately behind the low on Wednesday, expect the winds to back 
to the north-northwest to northwest, with strong cold air advection 
potentially bringing gales of 35 to 45 kts across the lake (around a 
60% chance); some Storm-Force gusts up to 50 kts cannot be ruled 
out, with the NBM already showing a 20% chance of this occurring 
(highest over the open eastern lake). In addition, the high winds 
and strong cold air advection may be enough to bring some early-
season light freezing spray across the lake late Tuesday night 
through Wednesday. 

With northwest gales potentially continuing across the lake until 
late Thursday (Thanksgiving), mariners will want to keep a close eye 
on the forecast, as significant wave heights of 12 to 16 ft are 
possible in this event, not to mention the poor visibility in the 
lake enhanced/effect snow showers too. 

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ265.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP