873 
FXUS63 KOAX 222324
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
524 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet conditions continue today and Sunday with highs in the
  50s and 60s. Fog may develop over western Iowa and far eastern
  Nebraska Sunday morning.

- Rain returns late Sunday night into Monday (60-80% chance).
  Cooler with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday through
  Friday.

- Continue to monitor forecast from Thanksgiving into the
  weekend as potential exists for snowfall, although specific
  details and confidence remain low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

20z RAP objective analysis shows the sfc high now over Missouri into 
Kansas. A sfc low is seen over western Ontario, while the cold front 
extends south southwestward toward the forecast area. Latest METARs 
show the front draped from the Siouxland area to Columbus to near 
Kearney, Nebraska. Temperatures remained in the upper 50s to low 60s 
this afternoon, with breezy northwesterly winds behind the front. 
Weak lift and limited moisture along and just behind the main front 
has resulted in some mid to high level cloudiness. Looking aloft at 
the H5 pattern, a prominent shortwave trof axis associated with the 
aforementioned disturbance extends south from western Ontario into 
Minnesota. Two prominent closed lows are also seen: one entering the 
southwest US and the other over far eastern Canada.

Despite the front moving through, dry conditions are expected with 
most areas seeing clouds and sun today. The breezy winds will 
eventually subside late this afternoon and evening. Highs are 
forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows tonight will cool to the 
upper 20s to low 30s.

Sfc high pressure currently over the west will pivot and move into 
the Northern Plains late tonight into Sunday. By early Sunday 
morning, the ridge axis will be overtop, and with clear skies and 
light winds resulting in good radiational cooling, patchy fog may 
develop once again across western Iowa into far eastern Nebraska. 
Recent HREF and CAM guidance continues to key in on this area for 
development, so have kept mentions of patchy fog in these areas from 
07z to 15z.

Fog will burn off Sunday morning, and the quiet conditions will 
continue for most of the daytime as we'll still be influenced by the 
sfc high. So, expect mostly sunny skies for most of the daytime. 
Highs reach the upper 50s to low 60s with light south southwesterly 
winds.

By late Sunday afternoon, clouds will be on the increase as the 
557dam closed low in the southwest US ejects northeast. H7-H5 Q-
vector convergence and implied lift will overspread much of the 
Central and Northern Plains Sunday evening. Increasing low level 
moisture transport should result in rain developing with 20 to 45% 
PoPs gradually increasing from west to east. Lows Sunday night will 
be in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rain will be ongoing Monday as the H5 cutoff low moves east across 
the Central Plains. PoPs increase to 60 to 80% Monday morning over 
much of the forecast period, eventually tapering off and exiting to 
the east by Monday evening. Storm total QPF will be light as most 
locations will see a few hundredths to around 0.15 inches. Highs 
Monday reach the low to mid 50s.

After the cutoff low passes, an H5 shortwave will eject from the 
Pacific Northwest to the southeast, arriving at our doorstep on 
Tuesday. The shortwave will induce a sfc low which will track east 
across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Model guidance 
suggests the sfc low will deepen across Minnesota into Wisconsin, 
tightening the sfc pressure gradient over much of the Northern 
Plains. Aloft, a 40-50 kt jet behind the H8 closed low coupled with 
strong cold air advection should help promote strong subsidence and 
lead to gusty 30 to 35 mph northwest winds. Model guidance is also 
suggesting the shortwave will have enough moisture to work with 
resulting in a band of precipitation forming primarily over the 
Dakotas in the early morning, but this may clip far northeast 
Nebraska (15-20% PoPs). Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest that snow 
would be the most likely precip type, but chances remain low for 
snow to occur (~15% chance) at this time. For what it's worth, most 
ensemble guidance keeps the forecast area dry. High temperatures 
Tuesday are forecast for the mid to upper 40s.

The H5 shortwave will intensify into a closed low, elongating the 
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS for Wednesday. Behind the trof, 
deterministic guidance suggests an area of sfc high pressure 
overspreading much of the Central and Northern Plains, lingering 
through Thanksgiving and Friday. Highs Wednesday through Friday 
largely range in the mid 30s to low 40s. Northwesterly flow at H5 
should allow for at least some shortwave energy to eject southeast, 
and while the current forecast package has dry conditions persisting 
from Wednesday to Friday, a minimal amount of LREF members suggest a 
band of precip somewhere across portions of the Northern Plains
during this period. By the weekend, a longwave trof is progged 
to amplify over the western CONUS, but lots of spread in 
location/solution placement is seen. Obviously, considerable 
uncertainty exists regarding precip type, amounts, feature 
locations, etc., so expect further refinements and adjustments 
with subsequent forecast packages. Those with travel plans 
should continue to monitor the forecast for the latest 
information and updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

KOFK/KLNK: VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at
the terminals. Northwest winds become westerly after midnight,
before becoming southerly around mid-morning. A few high clouds
will move into the region around 15Z, increasing in coverage
from the west in the afternoon.

KOMA: VFR conditions prevail for most of the forecast period at
KOMA. Northerly winds become calm around 09Z. There will be a
chance for fog development overnight with some potential
visibility and ceiling impacts to the terminal between 09 and
15Z. Winds become southerly around 15Z with things clearing up
heading into the late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...ANW