580 
FXUS64 KMOB 222319
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
519 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Some strong to potentially severe storms are possible mainly 
   during Tuesday afternoon along and west of I-65.

 - A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the
   marine area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
 
 - A Moderate rip current risk exists for local beaches Tuesday 
   and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A cold front currently approaching from the west moves through the
forecast area mainly this afternoon into the evening hours with 
isolated convection accompanying the frontal passage. Dry 
conditions are then expected for Sunday into Monday along with a 
welcome respite from the nocturnal fog events of late. An upper 
low near the Baja area evolves into an upper trof while 
progressing into the southern/central Plains through Monday. This 
system ejects off across the northeast states Monday night into 
Tuesday while a Canadian system leads to a large upper trof 
evolving over the central states. The upper trof amplifies while 
progressing into the eastern states through Wednesday night, with 
an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a strong cold front 
through the forecast area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday 
morning, with some uncertainty regarding the timing. The system 
which ejects off across the northeast states will bring a region 
of weakening deep layer lift into the forecast area on Tuesday, 
with the 850 mb jet increasing to around 30 knots. MLCAPE values 
of 500-1000 J/kg look feasible along and west of I-65 on Tuesday. 
The 850 mb jet looks to weaken Tuesday night as the front moves 
through, but MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg may be realized 
despite the nocturnal timing. For now, will mention that some 
strong or possibly storms will be possible in the Key Messages for
Tuesday afternoon along and west of I-65 and continue to monitor.
As the front approaches and moves through, will have high rain 
chances shifting across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, then 
slight chance to chance pops for Wednesday, then dry conditions 
are expected for the remainder of the period.

In the wake of the cold front, lows tonight range from the lower
50s well inland to the lower 60s at the immediate coast. Lows 
Sunday night range from the mid/upper 40s well inland to the 
mid/upper 50s at the immediate coast. Lows Monday night will be 
milder and range from the upper 50s well inland to the mid/upper 
60s at the coast. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid/upper 50s 
well inland to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. In the wake of the 
second cold front, lows Wednesday night range from the mid/upper 
30s well inland to the mid 40s at the coast, then Thanksgiving 
Night will be cooler and range from the lower/mid 30s inland to 
the lower 40s at the coast. Lows Friday night will be similar. 
Highs on Sunday will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s, then 
Monday will range from the mid 70s to around 80 with similar 
values for Tuesday. Wednesday's highs will range from the upper 
60s to lower 70s along and west of I-65 with mid 70s further to 
the east. Thanksgiving Day will be cool and range from the upper 
50s well inland to the lower/mid 60s closer to the coast. 
Temperatures then moderate a bit through Saturday to range from 
the lower 60s well inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. A 
moderate risk of rip currents is in effect today, then a low risk 
follows for Sunday and Monday. A Moderate risk of rip currents is 
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR flight category generally prevails across the region tonight
with perhaps a few patches of MVFR to locally IFR ceilings prior
to the passage of a cold front overnight tonight. A few showers
and perhaps an isolated storm will accompany the front, generally
clearing the area after midnight. Dry weather conditions prevail
Sunday, with a north wind around 5 knots settling in across the
entire area in the wake of the front. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Light to occasionally moderate southwest to west winds become
northwesterly tonight as a cold front moves through. A 
southeasterly flow develops on Monday and becomes southerly on 
Tuesday. Winds shift to the northwest on Wednesday as a cold front
moves through with a moderate to strong offshore flow for 
Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become 
necessary for most of the marine area Wednesday night into 
Thursday morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      58  77  54  77 /  20   0   0   0 
Pensacola   63  77  58  75 /  20   0   0   0 
Destin      63  77  59  75 /  20   0   0   0 
Evergreen   54  77  47  80 /  10   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  51  72  49  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden      51  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   57  79  48  78 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$