687 
FXUS63 KTOP 221718
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1118 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The weekend starts off dry and warm before another system 
  brings rain back to the region Sunday night through Monday.

- Cooler and drier weather moves into the area next week.
  Thanksgiving day looks cool and dry with highs in the 40s.

- May be another chance for rain into next Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025


Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery showed split upper 
level flow across the conus. The norther branch of the upper level 
jet extended from western Canada east-southeast across the northern 
US, then around an upper low over Quebec, Canada. The southern 
branch of the upper jet extended along the CA coast, south-southwest 
to a closed upper low off the southern CA coast, then the southern 
branch of the jet extended east-northeast across OK/TX into the mid 
Atlantic states where it merged with the northern stream jet across 
the northeastern US. The upper trough that caused the steady rain 
across the CWA yesterday has filled and is now shifting east of
the Mid MS River Valley.

At 1 AM, the surface map showed a broad ridge of high pressure 
across the northern and central Plains building southward. The 
edge of low stratus was along and southeast of an Abilene, to 
Holton, to Oskaloosa line. The clearing line will slowly shift 
southeast through the early morning hours. Patchy to areas of 
fog will begin to develop where skies have cleared, though 
slightly drier air advection may limit the areal coverage of 
fog.

Saturday through Sunday:

The upper low off the southwest CA coast will lift northeast 
across the southwestern US, then northeast to the central NM/CO
border by 00Z MON. Ahead of the upper low an upper level ridge 
will amplify across the southern high plains and shift northeast
across central and southern Plains. If any fog develops through
the early morning hours it should mix out by 8 am. Skies will 
become sunny by this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will reach 
the upper 50s across the southeast counties to the lower 60s 
across the remainder of the CWA.

Sunday, as the downstream H5 ridge shifts east across the 
central and southern Plains, and surface winds become more 
southerly, high temperatures should reach the lower to mid 60s. 
High and mid level Clouds will increase through the afternoon 
hours of Sunday, as the upper low tracks northeast into 
northern NM and southern CO. A 60KT H5 jet max will lift 
northeast across west TX, into southwest KS. The lift in the
left exit region of the H5 jet will provide enough ascent for
rain showers to develop across southwest KS.

Sunday night through Monday night:

The closed upper low will fill into an open H5 trough and shift east-
northeast across KS during the day on Monday. Ahead of the H5 trough 
850mb winds will transport residual moisture northward into the 
central Plains Sunday night. The resulting isentropic lift and DCVA 
ahead of the H5 trough axis will cause widespread rain showers 
to develop from west to east across the area Sunday night into 
Monday. Expect periods of rain through the day Monday as a 
surface cold front shifts southeast across the area. The mean 
QPF from the LREF ensembles show most of the area receiving
0.25" to 0.4" from Sunday night through Monday night. The 
eastern counties of the CWA may see up to 0.5" of QPF. As the H5
trough shift east into MO, the rain should end from west to 
east across the CWA during the evening hours of Monday. Highs 
Monday will be cooler but still above seasonal norms in the mid 
to upper 50s. 


Tuesday through Friday:

The extended range models are in good agreement with forecasting 
an upper level trough digging southeast out of western Canada 
into the Great Lakes and amplifying by late Thursday 
(Thanksgiving). The northwest upper level flow across the 
central Plains will keep dry conditions across the CWA. A 
surface ridge of high pressure will build southward from the 
northern Plains into central and southern Plains Tuesday night, 
which will bring a colder airmass southward across eastern KS. 
Highs on Tuesday may be the warmest with upper 40s to mid 50s. 
Wednesday may be the coldest day of the week with highs in the 
lower to mid 40s. Thanksgiving day will be a bit warmer with 
highs in the mid to upper 40s. Friday, the surface ridge of high
pressure will shift southeast into the lower MS River Valley. 
Southerly winds across the CWA on the west side of the surface
ridge will moderate high temperatures into the upper 40s to 
lower 50s.

Friday night through Saturday:

An upper level trough will dig southeast cross central CA into the 
southwester US on Saturday. Residual moisture return may result in 
strengthening isentropic lift for rain showers to develop across the 
CWA during the day on Saturday. The GFS shows the better chance for 
showers across MO, though both the ECMWF and Canadian forecast QPF 
across the CWA through the day Saturday.

Looking ahead to the end of the Thanksgiving day weekend. The upper 
trough will remain across the southwestern US, with one H5 trough 
lifting  into the northern high Plains. At this time, 
across much of the central and southern Plains, temperatures 
will be warm for the precipitation type to be rain. Farther 
northwest and north, there may be a chance for snow from 
northeast CO, northeast across the NE PNHDL into SD, and 
northern MN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Light winds and clear skies continue today into the overnight 
hours. After previous rainfall, this should leave good moisture 
in the boundary layer for FG/BR chances overnight. Fog looks to
form mainly in river valleys with HREF probabilities giving a 
60% chance of visibility of less than a quarter mile at TOP in 
the early morning hours. MHK and FOE don't fall as fast as long,
have trended TAFs that way. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Craven