220 
FXUS62 KGSP 221512
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1012 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm air mass remains in place over our region today with 
decreasing rain chances. Dry but mild high pressure will arrive on 
Sunday and persist into early next week. A moist cold front will 
cross the the area in the middle of the week, ushering in much 
cooler temperatures behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Saturday: A very active split flow pattern continues 
to dominate the synoptic pattern across the country with perturbed 
northern stream flow draped from the Pacific Northwest to New 
England roughly along the Canadian border. Within the northern 
stream, a lead closed upper low and potent shortwave trough is 
lifting just south of Hudson Bay with a trailing Pacific jet 
extending across British Columbia into Alberta. Farther south, 
within the southern branch, a cutoff closed upper low continues to 
drop across southern California into the Desert Southwest. Flow will 
become increasingly zonal as a fast moving shortwave quickly shifts 
offshore. This will keep a stalled boundary off to the north as flow 
will be oriented parallel to the front. Clearing skies and plentiful 
sunshine will result in another very warm day for late November with 
highs soaring into the low 70s to low 80s. Several locations will 
likely set new daily record highs as anomalous warmth shows no signs 
of letting go of its grasp across the southeast states. Forcing will 
be much more nebulous, but an isolated or widely scattered shower or 
two cannot be ruled out through afternoon peak heating. By tonight, 
the previously mentioned Pacific jet over British Columbia and 
Alberta is progged to dive across the Canadian Prairies and carve 
out a trough over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. 
Increasing northwest flow extending across the Ohio Valley and into 
the Appalachians will finally be the impetus to send the stalled 
boundary across the area as a cold front. This will mainly be a dry 
frontal passage outside of the immediate mountains along the 
Tennessee border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM EST Saturday: Dry and cooler high pressure builds into 
the area from the west on Sunday. Cooler is relative as highs will 
still be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows Sunday night do drop 
to near normal across the mountains and nearly 5 degrees above 
normal elsewhere. 

The high moves east on Monday and off shore Mon nite. This sets up a 
southerly flow across the area with increasing clouds and moisture 
late Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Mostly sunny 
skies with highs around 5 degrees above normal Monday. Clouds 
increase Monday night but showers should remain west of the area. 
With the clouds and southerly flow, lows rise to around 10 degrees 
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Saturday: Guidance is coming together on the cold 
front crossing the area in the Wednesday time frame. A short wave 
ridge starts over the area then moves east Tuesday, but it's still 
strong enough to dampen the initial short wave that rides up the 
ridge into the Great Lakes. A more intact upper low moves across the 
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A series of short waves rotating around 
the move cross the area Wed and early Thu. At the surface, deep 
moisture increases across the area as an initial wave along the 
front moves into the area. With moisture and precip moving in and a 
dry air mass in place across the area, a weak CAD may develop 
Tuesday. The short waves then give the front a push on Wednesday as 
another wave moves along the front and into the area. The 
combination of forcing and deep moisture bring increasing chances of 
showers with this system. 

Some timing differences remain which affects the potential for any 
surface based instability. Still, even the slower guidance has 
little in the way of sbCAPE. The guidance shows the potential for up 
to 200 J/kg of muCAPE with strong shear. That said, the frontal 
position and shear direction don't look great for a high shear/low 
CAPE event. This will continue to be monitored. Guidance is in 
better agreement of the potential for some heavy rainfall, 
especially across the mountains. That said, with the dry antecedent 
conditions, we don't expect widespread hydro issues unless QPF 
response increases a good bit. Precip tapers off Wed nite, but can't 
rule out a brief period of light NW flow snowfall. 

Behind the front, an actual cold air mass moves in as dry high 
pressure builds over the area Thu and Fri. Highs Thu around 5 
degrees below normal across the mountains and near normal elsewhere 
drop a few degrees across the mountains and around 5 degrees below 
normal elsewhere on Friday. Lows fall to 5 to 10 degrees below 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An evolving mix of flight restrictions 
continues early this morning as dense fog along and north of the I-
40 corridor has given way to the development of a widespread deck of 
low stratus extending along the I-85 corridor. This has brought 
improving conditions to KHKY with lowering ceilings at 
KAND/KGMU/KGSP/KCLT. MVFR ceilings are common with a few instances 
of IFR in play as well. With time, stratus will lift and scatter 
through the morning with conditions improving back to VFR by mid to 
late morning. Otherwise, winds will be gusty through the day ahead 
of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift from southwest to out 
of the north behind the front. A couple isolated showers cannot be 
discounted this afternoon in the vicinity of the CLT metro, however 
confidence is too low to warrant mention in the TAF at this time.

Outlook: Drier conditions return early next week, although there 
will remain some potential for mountain valley fog/low stratus each 
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 11-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      74 1940     32 1937     57 1934     15 2008    
                                                    1937    
   KCLT      76 2011     38 1929     65 1883     13 2008    
   KGSP      77 2011     38 1937     58 1953     18 1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW
CLIMATE...GSP