751 
FXUS63 KOAX 220513
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1113 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will taper off from north to south this afternoon, with
  totals generally topping out around 0.25-0.50" near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Expect a mild, dry weekend with highs in the low 60s; rain
  chances increase again Monday, peaking at 60-80%.

- Cooler weather arrives next week, with highs falling into the
  30s and low 40s by Thanksgiving.

- Monitor the forecast for Thanksgiving into next weekend, there
  are early hints of snowfall, but confidence in timing and
  location remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Tonight through Sunday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon shows a mid-
level shortwave moving across the central Plains, with an associated 
surface low over central Kansas slowly drifting east. A band of 
precipitation north of the low continues to bring light rain to 
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Rain will steadily diminish 
from north to south through the afternoon, with totals generally 
topping out around 0.25-0.50" near the Nebraska-Kansas border. 
Persistent cloud cover and northerly low-level flow will hold 
afternoon temperatures in the chilly 40s. 

Between the departing low to the south and another surface low near 
the North Dakota-Canada border, a weak front will slide through 
tonight into Saturday morning, shifting winds to the southwest. 
Guidance does hint at the possibility for patchy fog again Saturday 
morning. However, winds increase just enough behind the front with 
model soundings bringing gusty winds just above the surface as
well. Therefore, any fog will likely be very patchy and 
constrained to wind protected areas in southeast NE and
southwest IA.

Clearing skies and a modest pattern change will allow Saturday's
highs to climb into the low 60s, about 10-15 degrees above the 
climatological average for mid- November. Although a weak cold 
front will sweep through early Sunday as the northern system 
passed by, temperatures will remain largely unaffected, with 
southerly flow quickly returning and highs again reaching the 
low 60s. Overall, the weekend looks mild, dry and pleasant. 

Monday and Beyond...

By Monday, the closed mid-level low currently positioned along the 
California-Baja coast will slingshot northeast toward the region, 
bringing our next chance for precipitation. PoPs move in Sunday 
night and peak around 60-80% Monday morning before diminishing from 
west to east through the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation is 
expected to fall as rain, with temperatures largely holding in the 
40s and 50s. Cooler air arrives Tuesday on the backside of the 
departing low, and a handful of EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members 
(roughly one-eighth) suggest the potential for some light snow in 
northeast NE as the system exits. At this time, the probability of 
impacts appear low, but it's something to watch. High Tuesday will 
generally reach the 40s, accompanied by gusty northwesterly winds. 

By midweek, a mid- to upper-level trough sweeping across the 
northern Plains will send a reinforcing shot of cold air into the 
region, dropping high temperatures into the 30s and low 40s through 
the remainder of the work week, with overnight lows in the teens and 
20s. Long-range guidance also hints at a band of light snow Thursday 
into early Friday, though GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS members show 
considerable spread in both placement and intensity. For now, PoPs 
remain below 20%, but the situation will be monitored. A more robust 
mid- to upper-level trough is expected to arrive next weekend, 
bringing better chances for snow; however, ensemble solutions 
continue to vary widely on where snowfall may set up. It will be a 
period to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are
currently light across the area. These winds will gradually 
shift around to southwesterly through the early morning, 
becoming westerly by the late morning and afternoon. Wind speeds
will also increase during the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Chehak