325 
FXUS61 KCLE 211211
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
711 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass northeast of the area today. Meanwhile,
low pressure will develop over the central United States and
move east through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure will build behind this system on
Saturday. A weak low will pass north of the area on Sunday. High
pressure will return for Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front passing to the northeast will get into NE OH/NW PA
this morning in conjunction with the upper trough moving through
eastern Canada. There is some low potential for some showers to
develop along this feature and have re-introduced some low PoPs
for this area this morning. Otherwise, the main feature for
today and tonight will be a developing low pressure system over
the central CONUS that will push east toward the Ohio Valley.
There continues to be a slight trend southward with this system,
especially as the trough the northeast remains stronger.
Therefore, will have a mix of chance to likely PoPs continuing
across the area tonight, but the expanse of likely PoPs
continues to shrink southeast and total QPF caps to at most
one-tenth of an inch of rain. High pressure will be quick to
return on Saturday with an upper ridge entering the region and
dry weather is expected. Temperatures will be near normal today
in the 50s with below normal in the 40s on Saturday behind the 
low pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The short term forecast period appears quiet for the weekend
before Thanksgiving. High pressure will be in control to start
the period and dry weather is expected on Saturday night. For
Sunday, an upper trough will dig into the Northeast United
States, supporting a low pressure system to the northeast. Do
not believe that this will impact the local area, but it will be
close. High pressure will return on Sunday night into Monday and
allow for continued dry weather. Temperatures through the period
appear to be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast remains on track for a large system to
sweep across the CONUS next week that will bring widespread rain
to the region at some point and allow for colder air to settle 
into the Great Lakes for after the holiday. However, much like 
24 hours ago, there is still quite the spread in solutions for 
this system, which has implications on rain timing and winds for
Monday night through Wednesday and any residual rain and snow
for Thursday and beyond. Maintaining higher PoPs during the
first half of the period but this will certainly need to be
shortened up with time. In addition, winds will need to be
watched depending on the ultimate low pressure track and
strength of the cold front. Have chance PoPs for rain
transitioning into snow on Thursday, but a faster system may
lead to quicker lake effect snow chances, while a slower system
may still be more broad with precipitation. This period will
certainly be one to watch with the holiday and travel interests
looming.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread non-VFR conditions are being observed across the area
this morning as low clouds mixed with patchy fog are reducing
conditions to primarily LIFR with patchy IFR/MVFR. Visibilities
should begin to improve immediately following sunrise,
rebounding VFR by 15Z this morning. Low clouds will linger
through today with most ceilings remaining below 2kft. The
exception will be TOL and possibly ERI which will be further
north and possibly be able to rebound to VFR briefly this
afternoon. By late evening into the overnight hours, rain
showers associated with a cold front moving east will skirt the
southern portion of the area, likely reducing visibilities and 
ceilings to IFR/LIFR once again. Even in areas where it doesn't 
rain, there will be another potential for low stratus/fog to 
develop. Near the end of this TAF period, some conditions should
begin to lift to at least MVFR with VFR conditions expected to 
return on Saturday. Southwest winds will back to northwest winds
behind the front but will remain <10 knots through the period. 

Outlook...VFR is then favored Saturday through Monday, though 
will need to monitor how quickly the stratus clears into the 
weekend. Non-VFR in rain showers possible Monday night and 
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will persist through today before a 
cold front moves east tonight and shifts winds to become 
northwesterly at 5-15 knots. These winds will gradually shift around 
a high pressure system moving across the region, becoming 
southwesterly by Saturday night. On Sunday, the gradient will 
increase across Lake Erie, resulting in winds increasing to 15-20 
knots from the west-northwest. There may need to be a brief Small 
Craft Advisory on Sunday with waves building around 4 feet across 
the eastern basin, but will continue to monitor trends in the coming 
updates. These winds should weaken by Sunday night to 5-15 knots and 
gain a more southerly component through Monday and into Tuesday. By 
midweek, a stronger low pressure system will move across the Great 
Lakes region, bringing additional hazardous marine conditions to 
Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04