936 
FXUS66 KPDT 182259
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
259 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025


.UPDATED AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Low CIGs have cleared out of KRDM/KBDN
from this late morning, leaving all sites at VFR with light winds.
Otherwise, mid to high clouds will prevail throughout the TAF 
period. Feaster/97

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025/ 

KEY POINTS...

1. High mountain precipitation, low elevation dry  

2. Cold overnight temperatures with patchy fog/freezing fog

3. Active weather will return late in the week

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows a layer of mid level clouds
hovering over the easter portion of the CWA keeping the Ochoco-
John Day Highlands eastwards overcast. A layer of high level 
clouds have moved over the vast majority of the CWA this afternoon
as well. Models are showing a dry air slot will push in behind 
these clouds bringing dry and cold conditions to the majority of 
the region with some high mountain rain. 

Today through Thursday afternoon...The remainder of the day will 
continue to be dry with only the high elevations of the Cascades 
seeing any form of precipitation as the trough continues to meander 
over the region. With the dry cold air filtering into the region 
from the NW, overnight temperatures will dip into at or below 
freezing range with 60-80% of the raw ensembles showing much of 
central/north central OR, Ochoco-John Day Highlands, the Gorge, 
foothills of the Blues, Simcoe Highlands and portions of the eastern 
slopes of the Cascades seeing temperatures below freezing. With that 
said, a FREEZE WARNING has been issued for the OR and WA portions of 
the Gorge for freezing temperatures starting tonight at 11 PM and 
continuing through Wednesday morning at 10 AM. Along with the cold 
temperatures, there is roughly 30% probabilities that there will be 
patchy fog across portions of the region that remain above freezing 
and freezing fog in areas that drop below. A brief trough Wednesday 
afternoon will continue to keep the lower elevations dry with 
continued light high mountain precipitation ahead of the next 
incoming system.

Wednesday night models show the leading edge of the next trough 
beginning to push its way onshore. By Wednesday afternoon, mountain 
showers will begin and with the cooler air from today ahead of this 
next system, models show snow levels will drop to below 3500 feet in 
the far northern WA Cascades and 4500 feet across the remaining 
Cascades through tonight and continue through tomorrow. This next 
system will bring in some moisture allowing some light precipitation 
to fall along the Cascades before spreading across central OR and 
the eastern mountains. However, models do show this system to be 
relatively dry with only 0.01(over the eastern mountains) up to
0.05 inches (over the WA Cascades) of QPF available and only 60% 
probabilities of 0.10 inches of snow falling along the Snoqualmie 
corridor through Thursday morning and very light snow over the
eastern mountains as another brief ridge drys the area out ahead 
of the next incoming trough. 

Thursday night onwards...Models show an upper level elongated low 
off the coast of Canada slithering its way southward bringing with 
it SW flow aloft and a weak AR. However, clusters are showing there 
to be some difference with the timing of the separating low and 
trough. Thursday eyeing, a few models (GFS/Can) show the low to 
serrate from the trough ans swing south towards California and an 
elongated trough moves over the Cascades while the remaining models 
have the system still as one (ECMWF/NAM). Regardless, ensembles and 
models alike show this will bring back increased probabilities of 
precipitation across the WA Cascades, Blues and the Wallowas. CB/90

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  48  31  47 /  10   0  10  10 
ALW  34  48  35  47 /  10   0  10  20 
PSC  30  48  32  50 /   0   0   0   0 
YKM  29  50  32  51 /   0   0   0   0 
HRI  31  48  33  49 /   0   0   0  10 
ELN  27  46  30  47 /   0   0  10   0 
RDM  22  51  27  49 /   0   0  20  10 
LGD  29  51  34  51 /  10   0  10  20 
GCD  31  55  34  51 /  10   0  10  20 
DLS  34  50  39  52 /   0   0  30  20 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday 
     for ORZ041.

WA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday 
     for WAZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...97