029 
FXUS61 KBUF 181749
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1249 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will pass across Ohio and Pennsylvania tonight, with 
perhaps a light rain or snow shower making it across the border into 
the Southern Tier tonight. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail 
through Thursday, with temperatures moderating to near normal by 
Thursday. The next storm system will bring mainly plain rain 
Thursday night through Friday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
This afternoon satellite imagery displays a shortwave trough over 
WI/IL, with a warm conveyor belt of moisture streaming over the Ohio 
Valley. 

An elongated surface high over the Central and Eastern Great Lakes 
will limit the northern extent of moisture from the Ohio Valley 
through tonight, and with the upstream shortwave tracking east-
southeastward, precipitation chances will be low, with just a chance 
PoP tonight of rain or snow near the state line of the Southern 
Tier. 

Northerly flow ahead of this surface high along with cold air 
advection will bring lake effect clouds to the southern shoreline of 
Lake Ontario tomorrow before a wealth of dry air associated with the 
surface high brings mostly sunny skies to our region. 

While tomorrow evening will likely start with clear skies, mid and 
high level clouds will increase through the night with a subtle 
shortwave rippling along a now zonal flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure exits off to our east Thursday and then out to sea 
Thursday night. Overall...dry weather will continue one more day 
(Thursday) and then the front nearing the Lower Lakes will bring 
increasing chances for showers Late Thursday night and Friday. 
Mild airmass streaming into the region will support precipitation to 
fall in the liquid form ahead of the cold front. The cold front 
sweeps through the area Friday afternoon ushering in a colder (850 
T's of -3C to -6C) but fairly dry airmass. Given that...the 
lack of moisture in the wake of the cold front will limit lake 
effect showers E-ESE of the lakes Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Subsidence and drier air associated with the sfc high building in 
from the west is expected to provide largely dry weather for the 
weekend. Low pressure moving east along the U.S./Canadian 
border may bring the next better chance of showers by Monday,
dependent on track and timing. After that, it looks like high 
pressure may bring a return to dry weather to wrap up this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are found, and these 
conditions will mainly prevail through the TAF cycle.

The two exceptions are: one, a weakening storm system passing by to 
our south may bring MVFR ceiling heights, and stray light snow or 
rain to the Southern Tier (KJHW) between 02Z and 09Z.

Secondly, a northerly flow of cold, but dry air aloft may generate a 
deck of MVFR lake effect cloud south of the Lakes tonight and into 
tomorrow morning. This may impact KIAG and KROC, and possibly KBUF 
and KJHW.

Otherwise light winds with surface high pressure nearby to close out 
the TAF cycle. 

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers likely.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Exiting deep low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes, along with 
the approach of an elongated area of surface high pressure will 
bring a period of lighter winds, initially southwesterly this 
afternoon, then northerly tonight through Wednesday night. 

The next chance for small craft conditions will be Friday and into 
Friday night in conjunction with a cold front passage. Highest waves 
will be found in central and eastern waters of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas