873 
FXUS64 KEWX 181105
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
505 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and muggy through Wednesday with morning low 
  clouds, patchy fog, and drizzle

- Locally heavy rainfall with flooding concerns and some strong to 
  isolated severe storms possible late Wednesday night into early 
  Friday with storm system

- Higher uncertainty but additional rain chances could occur from the
  weekend through early next week due to a second Pacific upper 
  level low pressure system

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Very warm and humid conditions persist across the region. Expect 
morning low clouds to develop into each morning. A stratus deck 
should continue to be more favored compared to fog across most 
locations. Patchy fog, if it does occur, is most favored over the 
Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. With slightly 
deeper low-level moisture, some patchy drizzle is possible for 
Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning may trend even a little better 
for areas of drizzle along with perhaps some isolated low topped 
shower activity as the low-level warm and moist air advection 
intensifies ahead of the approaching weather system. Through the 
daytime hours on Wednesday, low end shower chances and perhaps a 
storm is possible but activity looks to remain trapped under a 
capping inversion aloft at around 700 mb and limited in areal 
coverage. Afternoon highs will trend from the mid 70s to low 80s 
over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau to the mid and 
upper 80s elsewhere. We will continue to challenge daily record 
highs in some locations, especially today's, as they are a little 
lower in comparison to the surrounding dates. Morning lows will 
maintain in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The primary window for the more active stretch of weather begins 
late Wednesday with increasing southwesterly flow and ascent out 
ahead of the slow moving Pacific storm system. The medium range 
guidance during the past 48 hours has trended a little slower and 
not quite as potent with the parent low. However, a preceding 
impulse ahead of the main low helps fire thunderstorms over our 
western regions on Wednesday night. There are growing signals 
with some of the farthest reaching higher resolution short term 
model guidance showing that these storms could train across the 
same locations with minimal eastward progression initially. Once 
the parent low eventually ejects northeast and allows for the 
frontal boundary and it's ascent to move into the region, this 
helps to develop additional rain and storms. This activity should 
be a bit more progressive and advances this activity east- 
southeastward across the region from Thursday into/through 
Thursday night. The prospects for severe weather has decreased a 
bit thanks to the weaker parent low but there is enough overlap of
shear and instability for strong to isolated severe storms. A 
level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather was introduced for Wednesday 
night in our western areas and this could be expanded from 
Thursday through Thursday night farther towards the east with the 
next day 3 convective outlook issuance.

The greatest concern and impacts late Wednesday night through 
Thursday night would be with excessive rainfall resulting in the 
potential for some flooding. Right now, the latest ensemble means 
continue to support rainfall on average up into the 1 to 3 inch 
range, mainly for the northern 2/3rds of our CWA. Locally higher 
amounts are likely, especially with some of that newest output 
mentioned in the previous paragraph from the high resolution 
guidance. Any of these higher bullseyes would be difficult to 
pinpoint until near term of the event. There will also be some 
locations, especially south, that may not get up to an inch. WPC 
highlights a level 1 to 2 risk of excessive rainfall that could 
result in flooding from Wednesday night through Thursday night 
across the region. Conditions are to dry out following the front 
from west/northwest to east/southeast on Friday but small rain 
chances may linger across our far southeast counties with the 
possibility of the front getting hung up along the coast.

The forecast uncertainty increases from the weekend through the 
start of next week as another Pacific upper level low will take 
shape. Similar to our last few modeled Pacific systems at around 
this modeled time range, there is quite a bit of inconsistency 
between run to run regarding the timing and placement of this 
system. Additionally into and through this weekend, we will also 
closely monitor the placement of the surface front as it could 
continue to remain hung up along the coast or portions of South 
Texas. Pending how the upper pattern evolves, this front could 
interact and provide some support for rain or clouds through 
isentropic lift. We'll continue to keep the forecast near the 
blended (NBM) guidance that continues to keep low to medium rain 
chances in the 20 to 50% range.

Area temperatures from Thursday onward leave near record warmth 
behind and should return closer to the seasonal averages with 
daytime highs, mainly in the 60s and 70s, and overnight lows 
dropping as low as the 40s and 50s. However, with greater 
uncertainty, larger than normal temperature adjustments may be 
needed within the forecast as details become clearer during the 
progression of time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR CIGs with patchy IFR CIGs, -DZ, and BR will lift to VFR early 
this afternoon, then return late this evening into night. S to SE 
winds 6 to 12 KTs will prevail with a few gusts to 25 KTs midday 
through evening.  

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Record High Temperatures Tuesday 11/18   

AUS 84/2017    
ATT 85/1921 & 1986 
SAT 88/1986 & 2017
DRT 87/1986

Record Rainfall Thursday 11/20

AUS 1.24"/2009
ATT 1.63"/2009   
SAT 1.15"/2009
DRT  .20"/1984

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  68  84  69 /  10  10  20  30 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  67  84  68 /   0  10  20  30 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  68  85  69 /  10  10  30  30 
Burnet Muni Airport            82  66  81  66 /  10  10  20  50 
Del Rio Intl Airport           83  68  79  65 /  10  10  30  80 
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  66  83  68 /  10  10  30  40 
Hondo Muni Airport             84  67  84  68 /  10  20  30  60 
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  67  84  68 /  10  10  30  30 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  67  85  68 /  10  10  20  20 
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  69  84  70 /  10  20  30  40 
Stinson Muni Airport           85  69  86  70 /  10  10  30  40 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...04