473 
FXUS64 KFWD 160741
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
141 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through
  early Friday. Heavy rain may increase the threat for flooding
  during this period. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A weak cold front is slowly moving southward across Oklahoma and 
will arrive in North Texas later this morning. Although this front
will not bring us rain chances today, it will knock off a few 
degrees from this afternoon's temperatures compared to yesterday.
Today's highs will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across 
North Texas with mid 80s in Central Texas.

With no substantial cold air in place, the "cool" shallow air 
will mix out this afternoon and allow for southerly winds to 
return to the region this evening. The tranquil weather conditions
will continue into the night as overnight temperatures drop to 
the 50s west of I-35 and 60s along and east of I-35. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Our warm and rain-free conditions will come to an end next week 
as a series of weather systems lead to periods of enhanced forcing
for ascent. The first system will miss North and Central Texas 
completely as it lifts from Arizona to Colorado and eventually 
into the Central Plains. Although the greatest forcing for ascent 
will remain well north of our region, this system will lead to lee
cyclogenesis across Colorado and a northward migration of 
moisture out of the Gulf across our region. Given the increasing 
moisture and weak warm air advection, an isolated shower or two 
cannot be ruled out as early as Tuesday, however, this potential 
will remain below 10%. 

Another weather system will be migrating eastward across the 
Desert Southwest on Tuesday. This system will be taking a more 
southerly track compared to the previous, increasing it's 
influence on our weather across North and Central Texas. 
Confidence continues to increase that this system will take its 
time moving eastward, thus, placing North and Central Texas in a 
favorable region for multiple waves of ascent to move overhead. 

The first wave of stronger ascent will arrive Wednesday morning, 
increasing rain chances to around 40-60% through the afternoon. 
Thermodynamic profiles continue to produce around 1500 J/Kg of 
instability with around 30 kts of deep layer shear. This should be
enough to produce a few stronger storms capable of small hail and
gusty winds.

The next wave will be much stronger as the parent shortwave 
inches closer to our region on Thursday. Rapid pressure falls will
lead to increasing forcing for ascent as moisture continues to be
drawn northward. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop across western North and Central Texas, then move 
eastward through the day. Similar to Wednesday, the parameter- 
space does not support widespread severe weather, however, a few 
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. The main difference 
between Wednesday and Thursday will be a slight uptick in deep- 
layer shear as the lower-levels respond to the passing shortwave. 

In addition to the severe weather potential, there will be a 
threat for flooding with Thursday's precipitation. With nearly 
unidirectional flow from the surface to 500mb, thunderstorm 
training will lead to areas of heavier precipitation. Placement 
and timing of those heavy precipitation bands remains uncertain 
this far out. There continues to be agreement in the guidance that
rainfall amounts will most likely range between 2-4". Given the 
potential for training storms, a few locations may pick up more 
than 4" of rain by Friday. 

As the system gradually pulls away, it will send a cold front
across North and Central Texas on Friday bringing temperatures 
closer to seasonal normals. By next weekend, another system may 
approach our region and once again increase rain chances for parts
of North and Central Texas. Make sure to stay tuned to the 
forecast if you have midweek or weekend plans!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Southerly winds are in place this early Sunday morning, however, 
this will be changing later today as a cold front slides south 
through all of the TAF sites. The cold front will arrive in the 
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex around 15z, and KACT closer to 20z. 
Winds behind the front will remain below 10 kts with no 
precipitation expected. 

Winds will gradually veer through the day, becoming northeasterly
by the afternoon and southeasterly this evening. With little 
moisture to work with today, expect VFR conditions to continue 
through the duration of this TAF cycle. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  63  85  67 /   0   0   0  10 
Waco                85  65  85  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               81  63  82  66 /   0  10  10  10 
Denton              79  58  85  64 /   0   0   0  10 
McKinney            82  62  85  65 /   0   0   0  10 
Dallas              82  65  86  68 /   0   0   0  10 
Terrell             83  63  85  66 /   0  10   0  10 
Corsicana           87  67  86  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              87  63  86  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       84  56  91  63 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez