617 
FXUS64 KLIX 151906
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
106 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next week.
 
- Some patchy dense fog could develop tonight, especially along
  river drainage basins. Remember to slow down and use your low
  beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A broad upper level ridge encompasses much of the southern US east 
of the Desert Southwest. An upper trough sliding through the Great 
Lakes and Northeast will flatten the east side of the ridge 
somewhat, but this won't cause any appreciable changes to local a 
weather for the remainder of this weekend. That means no rain 
expected and temps remain above normal, moderating slightly going 
through Sunday. The biggest impact from weather remains to be fog 
potential. Model soundings show a low level inversion evening 
through the overnight period as clear skies allows for modest 
radiational cooling. The 12Z KLIX sounding showed the inversion was 
only 500' deep. Both shallower and steeper than GFSBufr showed for 
this morning. Guidance does suggest a thin layer of high clouds 
moving in from the NW after midnight which could limit radiational 
cooling and thus stunt fog development. Taking that into 
consideration as well as the more scattered nature of fog last 
light, am hesitant to put out dense fog advisory attm. Will say 
though that local river basins are the most likely areas that fog 
will develop. Should be noted that the setup remains for potential 
of compounding effect of smoke with dense fog as it's been so dry 
lately.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Moving through next week, an upper low in the Desert Southwest 
tracks across the Rockies and Central Plains. This will flatten the 
ridge aloft. A surface low associated with the trough will begin to 
draw Gulf moisture northward. Although a stray showers may develop, 
not expecting much at all. What will be noticeable is gradual 
warming each day. By Wednesday, could be just a few degrees below 
record highs for this time of year. 

Global models beyond continue to advertise a decent chance for rain 
Thurs/Fri timeframe as a southern stream trough moves through the 
region. The path the upper low takes and how amplified is a bit 
uncertain right now, but certainly bears watching for severe 
potential. 

MEFFER 
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Relatively light southerly winds will continue throughout the day 
before relaxing this evening and overnight as the boundary layer 
decouples. Similar to last night, low level temp inversion will 
promote fog development. Its not a significantly strong one which may 
limit coverage to some degree. So while VFR will dominate the 
forecast timeframe, periods of IFR to VLIFR will be possible either 
from surface or tree top level fog. 

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Southeast US 
through the forecast period. This will allow for a continuation of 
onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain light at around 10 
knots or less and seas/waves less than 2 feet. Probably won't see 
appreciable changes until latter half of next week. Global models do 
continue to show a southern stream trough bringing a cold front 
through with hazardous winds/seas over marine areas. 

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  56  79  57  77 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  58  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  55  78  55  77 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  61  81  61  80 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  58  78  58  76 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  55  79  55  77 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME