838 
FXUS63 KEAX 151134
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
534 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal conditions today with highs mostly in the 70s.

- Slightly elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon primarily 
north of I-70.

- Temperatures trend cooler starting Sunday, with precipitation 
chances (20-50%) returning Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Another day of above normal conditions are expected to start the 
weekend with highs mostly in the 70s this afternoon. Broad mid to 
upper level ridging remains situated over the southern U.S. (mainly 
TX). There is a closed mid to upper level low just to the west of 
the Hudson Bay region and a cut-off low just off the west Coast near 
CA. For today, the mid to upper level parent low just to the west of 
the Hudson Bay will push a dry cold front through the area starting 
this morning. As a result, winds will gradually shift more northerly 
and gust to around 15-20 mph later this morning through the 
afternoon. This increased, dry northerly windflow will allow 
relative humidity values to drop into the low to mid 30s yielding 
slightly elevated fire weather concerns primarily for areas north of 
I-70. Later this evening into tonight, skies clearing out coupled 
with decent cold air advection (CAA) will allow early morning lows 
to cool much closer to seasonal averages. Lows for tomorrow morning 
will range in the upper 30s to low 40s which happens to be 5-10 
degrees above normal.

For the second half of this weekend, expect cooler temperatures with 
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s as a surface high descends from 
the Northern Plains on the backside of the cold front. By the start 
of the work-week, the previously-mentioned cut-off low off the west 
coast of the U.S. will have been nudged back into the flow by a much 
stronger mid to upper level trough off the coast of British 
Columbia. After the cut-low comes ashore, it will eject a shortwave 
that moves through the flow resulting in precip chances (20-50%) 
starting Monday afternoon into the evening. The most favorable areas 
seem to be along the eastern/northeastern fringes of our CWA (areas 
east of a line from Putnam to Pettis counties). Despite the 
sufficient amount of shear, no severe is anticipated given the very 
limited amount of instability (MUCAPE values up to 300 J/kg). A few 
isolated, sub-severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, however 
mostly showers are expected. QPF totals remain below a tenth of an 
inch suggesting another low impact event.

On Tuesday, the mid to upper level trough that was off the western 
coast of British Columbia will have traveled south/southeast near 
Baja CA. Simultaneously, it will eject multiple shortwaves through 
the flow resulting in multiple chances for precip for the second 
half of next week. As that system moves through the flow heading 
into the weekend, another system moves in quickly on its heels 
suggesting the potential for additional precip chances lingering 
into the week after. As far as temperatures, expect highs to 
gradually cool next week with multiple systems and precip chances. 
For now, seasonal temperatures seem to be the trend Friday into next 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the duration of the TAF 
period. As a cold front moves through the area winds will
gradually shift out of the south/southwest to the north.
Occasional wind gusts ranging from around 15-18 kts can be
expected starting late this morning into the afternoon on the
backside of the front. Winds will weaken as diurnal mixing 
diminishes.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier