227 
FXUS64 KEWX 151115
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
515 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog during this morning and Sunday morning

- Unseasonably warm into next week, could approach daily record 
  highs early next week

- Slow moving storm system to bring a return to rain and storm
  chances (40-70%) middle to late next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The mid-level ridging across the region transitions to more of a 
west-southwesterly flow aloft this weekend with some influence from 
the longwave trough pattern that establishes across the western 
CONUS. Embedded within the larger trough setup, a shortwave should 
pivot northeastward across the Four Corners through Sunday and 
towards the central plains into Monday. However, do not expect any 
significant changes to our weather from this shortwave as we'll 
remain firmly within the warm sector with continued unseasonably 
warm temperatures. The southerly flow will continue to prevail and 
provides some supply of low-level moisture from the Gulf waters. 
This yields to the muggy nights with development of morning low 
clouds and fog. Patchy to areas of fog for this morning favors 
locations along and south/west of the I-10 corridor where the HREF 
and REFS probabilities show medium (30-60%) chances of visibility 
around or below a 1/2 mile. The signal for fog entering Sunday 
morning favor more along and east of the I-35 corridor. The low 
clouds and fog erode by mid to late each morning with mostly clear 
skies prevailing from the afternoon through the first half of the 
night. The daily record highs across the region are a bit lower on 
Sunday in comparison to the records for today's date where those 
values on Sunday could be the first to be challenged on being at 
least reached in the days ahead.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Very warm and humid conditions maintain early next week as the 
region remains under a west-southwesterly flow aloft in advance of 
the troughing out west. Some increase in the southerly low-level 
flow helps to result in stronger thermal (theta-E) ridging. This 
allows for the afternoon highs to continue to threaten the daily 
record highs into midweek. Overnights will remain very warm and 
humid as well with development of morning low clouds. Fog also 
remains a possibly but depends on the wind speeds and nocturnal 
mixing. Moisture may become deep enough Tuesday and Tuesday night 
where the opportunity could exist for a stray low topped shower 
and/or some patchy drizzle.

A slow moving storm system is then modeled to evolve from mid to 
late next week from the Desert Southwest east into the central 
CONUS. The placement, amplification, and timing of this system 
continues to remain a bit inconsistent from run to run on medium 
range guidance. Despite a lower than usual confidence within the 
forecast from Wednesday onward, the most recent blended (NBM) 
guidance signals the best rain and storm (40-70%) chances to the 
region in quite some time, with values peaking during Thursday 
across the area. The combination of enough instability and shear 
could factor in to result in the opportunity for some organized 
strong to severe storms as well, in addition to locally heavy 
rainfall. The ensemble means, however, favor North Texas through 
Eastern Oklahoma as the greater footprint for the highest rain 
amounts. Area temperatures should lower from the record highs 
occurring earlier in the week, initially with the increased 
cloudiness and any rain-cooled air, then in association with the 
post-frontal airmass that may follow in the wake of this storm 
system. Continue to check into the forecast through the upcoming 
days as these details regarding this system become ironed out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Airmass remains a bit more mixed than earlier indicated. IFR/MVFR
CIGs with TEMPOs MVFR VSBYs will mix to VFR by around midday, then
return overnight into early Sunday morning. S to SE winds 5 to 10
KTs increase to 10 to 15 KTs with a few gusts to 25 possible later
this morning, then decrease to 5 to 10 KTs tonight. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Record High Temperatures

Day     Sun      Mon      Tue            
Date   11/16    11/17    11/18    

AUS   87/2016  89/2013  84/2017    
ATT   87/1938  90/2013  85/1921&1986
SAT   86/1938  89/2013  88/1986&2017
DRT   89/1938  91/1906	87/1986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Burnet Muni Airport            83  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             86  58  86  62 /   0   0   0   0 
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  62  86  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Stinson Muni Airport           85  63  87  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...04