851 
FXUS63 KDMX 150958
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
358 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front arrives today but a mild start will still have
  highs in the 50s and 60s. Gusty northwest winds behind the
  cold front passage. 

- Increasing precipitation chances Monday afternoon and night.
  

- Another round of wet weather possible late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Surface trough is now moving into central Iowa this morning and is 
bringing cooler and drier air into the state. The primary cold front 
is still upstream over central Minnesota and into South Dakota. That 
boundary will reach northern Iowa early this morning and central 
Iowa around noon. The thermal ridge aloft is situated over the 
southeast half of Iowa while the colder air is back in proximity of 
the surface cold front. Temperatures are off to a mild start this 
morning with readings ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s. A 
brief mixing induced boost in temperatures will occur with the 
current trough passage then highs will be dependent on the 
timing of the cold frontal passage. While temperatures will 
stabilize over northern Iowa due to the earlier arrival time, 
late morning to early afternoon highs will transition to falling
temperatures over the south for the remainder of the day. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected with 
the boundary passage. 

A ridge of high pressure arrives tonight into Sunday and will bring 
much drier dew points in the teens and 20s to northern Iowa. Despite 
the cooler conditions, Sunday should be a pleasant mid November day. 
A moderately active weather is on the calendar for the upcoming 
week. Several closed upper low pressure systems will dive south off 
shore of the Pacific coast before ejecting out towards the Plains. 
The first upper low is just off the southern California coast this 
morning and that is the system that will bring heavy rain potential 
to that area. The speed max and associated vorticity energy rounding 
the basin of this upper low, will lift out towards the Midwest on 
Sunday and reach the area late Monday into Monday night. Gulf 
moisture will stream back north towards Iowa ahead of the system but 
it will take time to saturate due to the very dry air arriving as 
discussed above and because the surface flow will continue to 
originate from the departing high and reinforce that low level dry 
air. The overall trend of a warmer airmass than depicted 24 hrs
ago does suggest the snow potential is decreasing. The 
hydrometeor loading of the low level dry air mass will drag 
temperatures down as saturation occurs. Timing of the initial 
mid-level cloudiness will determine high temperature potential 
as any opaque cloud cover will hold highs in the 30s and 40s and
likely 5 to 8 degrees cooler than the NBM forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be mostly dry. Then next 
system lifting out of California will bring increasing precipitation 
chances beginning Wednesday night and especially later Thursday into 
Friday. The precipitation type is expected to be mostly rain but 
dynamic cooling and a lingering deformation zone could lead to a 
late transition to light snow. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A frontal passage through the morning will keep winds on the
breezy side, with LLWS over the next few hours, followed by a
wind shift becoming northwesterly through the day, with gusts up
to 20-25 knots. Otherwise, high clouds are expected to pass 
overhead, with VFR conditions expected to remain across the 
terminals through the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Bury