492 
FXUS63 KTOP 150929
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
329 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another very warm day is expected today, followed by slightly 
cooler but still above average temperatures into early next week.

- Rain chances Monday have lowered (10-25%) with better chances
  (30- 50%) coming Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Upper air pattern early this morning consists of one trough centered 
over northern Manitoba and another closed low spinning off the coast 
of California. This leaves ridging for the south central CONUS, with 
our area within more of a zonal flow pattern as the northern stream 
trough helps to flatten the ridge over the local area. There's 
enough moisture aloft for some high clouds in the region, but there 
has been just enough clearing at times for some patchy ground fog in 
the typical low-lying spots this morning, so expect that to be the 
case through sunrise. At the surface, low pressure is centered in 
Lake Superior with its trough axis extending southwest through IA, 
NE, and KS. This system is progged to drag a weak cold front through 
the area this morning and should be entirely across the area close 
to noon, per CAM guidance. Thanks to a stout inversion aloft and 
decent mixing of that inversion through the BL, we shouldn't feel 
much of an effect from the cooler air mass until tonight into 
Sunday. Today's highs still are forecast to reach the 70s area-wide, 
and little spread in the NBM indicates high confidence in that. 
Tonight's lows fall back to the upper 30s to low 40s, followed by 
high temperatures in the 60s for Sunday. High pressure slides across 
the region to give us plenty of sunshine.

Meanwhile, the southern stream trough is progged to weaken as it 
evolves from the closed low over CA to an open wave while traversing 
northeastward across the Great Basin into the Rockies. While there 
is still some model variability in how far north this system will 
track by Monday (the NAM being farthest north), the general 
consensus would still track the system north of us with the best 
upper support being into Nebraska. Moisture quality is also in 
question. The best moisture transport appears to be during the 
morning and afternoon, but forecast soundings (other than the NAM) 
only show a shallow stratus deck around 3-5kft AGL with drier air 
towards the surface. Given the northerly track and questionable 
moisture, think the lowering of PoPs to 10-25% (and focusing them 
north of I-70) makes sense. High temperatures have trended a bit 
warmer for Monday based on the system tracking north as well, with 
highs forecast between 60-70 degrees.

The sfc low associated with the Monday system looks to be east of 
the area by Tuesday morning, bringing another cold front with it. 
This brings temperatures down slightly for Tuesday with highs in the 
upper 50s to mid 60s. Then for the middle and end of next week, 
another amplified trough is progged to traverse across the southwest 
CONUS. This one stands the better chance of bringing some rainfall 
to the area, though differences in strength and timing of this 
trough keep PoPs mostly below 50% between Wednesday night and 
Friday. It should also be mentioned that temperature ranges are at 
least 10 degrees from Monday onward, lending to lower confidence due 
to placement of the warm front with Monday's system and 
clouds/precip for later in the week. Temperatures above average for 
mid-November are generally favored, but this could change for later 
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions expected. Still think elevated near-surface winds
will keep the boundary layer mixed enough to prevent fog development,
but there is a low chance for fog to briefly reduce VSBY at KTOP.
Wind increase to near 10 kts from the north behind a cold front
by 16z before weakening again Saturday afternoon

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 327 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

	      Record High         Forecast High
Nov 15
Topeka       78 (1887, 1899, 1950)  74 
Concordia    77 (1887, 1952)        72

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Picha