840 
FXUS64 KFWD 150724
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through
  early Friday. Heavy rain may increase the threat for flooding
  during this period. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night) 
Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A rather uneventful weather day is once again expected today 
across North and Central Texas as high pressure remains in 
control. With subsidence atop our region, afternoon temperatures 
this afternoon will rise into the 80s with a few 90s possible 
near Mineral Wells, Graham and Breckenridge. Similar to the past 
several afternoons, a south/southwesterly breeze will be in place
with gusts reaching 20-30 mph through around sunset. 

The area of high pressure will begin to break down as we head into
tomorrow as a trough enters the western CONUS. Concurrent with the
slow moving West Coast trough, a much more amplified longwave
trough will impact the eastern half of the country. Although 
impacts from the eastern trough will be minimal, a weak cold front
will manage to temporarily make an appearance tomorrow morning 
and afternoon, stalling across North Texas. With northerly winds 
in place across some parts of North Texas, afternoon highs will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday) 
Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The new week ahead will bring a series of weather changes as the 
pattern overhead gradually becomes more complex. On Monday, the 
West Coast trough referenced in the short-term discussion will be 
migrating across the Rockies. This will induce lee cyclogenesis 
across central Colorado, thus, inducing a rapid northward mass 
response over our region. PWATs will rise by about 0.5" across the
region from Monday to Tuesday, with an additional 0.5-0.75" 
increase from Tuesday to Wednesday. With abundant moisture in 
place, cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will arrive on Tuesday and 
persist through the latter half of the week. 

With the shortwave across the Front Range sliding east into the 
Upper Mid-West, another shortwave will enter the southwestern 
CONUS and begin tracking eastward through the first half of the 
week. This system will likely bring more impactful weather to the 
region as it slowly inches closer, and in doing so, it'll send 
embedded disturbances atop our region as early as Tuesday Night. 
With each passing disturbance, expect rain chance to increase. 
Rain chances will be the greatest on Thursday as the main upper 
trough moves overhead. 
 
Given the complexity of the overall weather pattern across the
region, there are still some uncertainties when it comes to total
rainfall amounts and thunderstorm intensity. The latest cluster
analysis has sided with the slower eastward progression of the
system, meaning, just over half of the available ensemble members
keep the shortwave west of our region through Thursday. This
slower solution would allow for moisture to continue to be drawn
northward into North and Central Texas as periodic waves of
forcing for ascent move overhead. Given the slower progression,
most likely rainfall amounts will range between 2-4" over the 3
day period starting Tuesday night. Timing of the heaviest rain
remains unclear at this time, however, given near record amounts
of moisture in the atmosphere, the threat for flooding will
increase. The overall strong-severe potential remains unclear
given weak to moderately-weak shear profiles and the amount of
competing updrafts that are likely to develop. These details are
expected to clear up as we get closer to next week, therefore,
make sure to monitor over the next several days as the specific
details are likely to change between today and the middle of next
week.  

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions are ongoing with southerly winds in place across
North and Central Texas. This will be changing through the early
morning hours as another shroud of MVFR cigs moves north from the
Texas Hill Country. KACT will likely see the arrival of MVFR 
around 10z while North Texas will see it closer to 13z. Coverage 
in low clouds will be greatest across Central Texas with on and 
off MVFR in North Texas through around 16z. After 16z, VFR skies 
will resume with south/southwesterly winds gusting to around 25 
kts through the afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  61  82  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                84  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               81  59  80  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              86  54  81  57 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            84  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              86  63  83  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             84  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           85  63  86  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              85  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       91  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez