National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDDMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX
Product Timestamp: 2025-11-15 04:21 UTC
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582 FXUS63 KDMX 150421 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1021 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Record high temperatures met at several locations this afternoon. - Cooling trend begins Saturday though more noticeable by Sunday. - Rain and possibly some snow in the forecast early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Another warm and beautiful afternoon occurring across Iowa. Current temperature observations are reporting low 70s and some records across the state. Today may also be the last above 70 degree day of the year so get out and enjoy it while it is here if you can! Similar to yesterday, these temperature observations are notably above the raw NBM output. Because of this, the NBM90th percentile was used to increase afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer. This warmth is occurring due to warm dry air aloft being mixed down to near ~900mb. This dry air helped limit how much our surface dew points increased. As mentioned in the the earlier discussion, the previous record high temperatures for November 14th are Des Moines(73), Waterloo(72), Mason City(71) and Ottumwa(75). The thermal ridge is expected to linger through early Saturday morning thus leaving warm lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Cloud cover will increase tonight as a closed low moving across central Canada will help force a mid-level wave into the northern plains. This feature will then compress the thermal ridge well into the southern CONUS during the daytime hours on Saturday. As the wave approaches surface winds will veer to the northwest and increase to near 15mph with gusts near 25mph. Forecasted highs will not be as warm as today mainly in the upper 50s and 60s and then will begin to fall as cold air advection begins Saturday evening. By Sunday into Monday, high pressure returns with cooler and drier air. RH values on Sunday sink into the upper 20 percents although wind gusts remains below 10kts which should suppress any fire weather concerns. Forecast highs for both days will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s. The forecast remains fairly unchanged in terms of timing for the system that comes through the central plains late Monday into Tuesday. Latest ensemble guidance (mainly the GEFS) favors some snow to mix in as a potential p-type mainly across northern Iowa. However, the focus for snow has trended farther northward closer to the MN/IA border. There is still time left before snow can be ruled out of the forecast given the chance that our temperatures are cooled down enough towards wet bulb values and increase snow growth potential. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1021 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 A frontal passage through the morning will keep winds on the breezy side, with LLWS over the next few hours, followed by a wind shift becoming northwesterly through the day, with gusts up to 20-25 knots. Otherwise, high clouds are expected to pass overhead, with VFR conditions expected to remain across the terminals through the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...Bury