944 
FXUS63 KTOP 150340
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
940 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front slides southward tomorrow afternoon, bringing somewhat 
  cooler temperatures to the region by Sunday. 

- Low rain chances return Monday (mainly north of I-70) with
  widespread higher precip chances potentially Wednesday-Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Expansive ridging in the midlevels throughout the central conus 
while southwest troughing builds coincident with a poignant upper 
low off the CA coastline. For this evening, southerly winds weaken 
just under 10 mph as high clouds increase from the northwest. This 
should help to limit the overall fog development Saturday morning, 
however would not be surprised to see patchy areas form near the 
river valley. Minor mid-level perturbations currently entering the 
northern plains shift a cold front southward late tonight, entering 
northeast Kansas during the day Saturday. Limited cooler air behind 
the sfc boundary should still welcome highs into the low to middle 
70s, especially south of I-70 where h925 temps linger in the 18-20C 
range amid decent sfc BL mixing. Fire weather conditions remain 
limited to moderate-high category as northerly sfc winds are not 
particularly gusty and minimum RH values in the afternoon drop into 
the 27-35 percent range. 

Latest runs of the GEFS and ENS continue to lend lesser than average 
confidence in rain chances Monday afternoon and evening as the 
aforementioned low lifts through the central plains. Large 
discrepancies persist in the track of the vort max coupled with 
moisture availability between the available ensembles. Latest NAM is 
further south with the 500 mb trough, similar to the operational EC 
which would improve our rain chances, however that could easily 
change in the coming days.

An additional southwest upper trough begins to impact the region as 
early as Wednesday as ample moisture advects northward through the 
southern plains in advance of the disturbance. Optimal lift and 
moisture near a frontal boundary would focus higher precip probs 
towards OK, lowering to modest rain chances in northeast Kansas at 
this time. The slower progression of the passing wave support 
several chances for much needed rainfall through Friday. 
Temperatures next week are generally in the 60s, albeit highly 
dependent upon the rain/cloud cover as high temp spreads of 10+ are 
common on the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions expected. Still think elevated near-surface winds
will keep the boundary layer mixed enough to prevent fog development,
but there is a low chance for fog to briefly reduce VSBY at KTOP.
Wind increase to near 10 kts from the north behind a cold front
by 16z before weakening again Saturday afternoon

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 222 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

	      Record High         Forecast High
Nov 15
Topeka       78 (1887, 1899, 1950)  76 
Concordia    77 (1887, 1952)        73

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage