321 
FXUS65 KBOU 142342
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
442 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will hold through
  most of the weekend. 

- The next system will bring a chance of precipitation to much of
  the forecast area Sunday night into Monday, with a few inches 
  of snow and generally minor travel impacts for the high country.

- Cooler and unsettled weather at times next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 125 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

The last of the really mild fall days will likely occur this
weekend, before we settle into a cooler and more active weather
pattern for the latter half of this month. Whether and when that
leads to our first measurable snow in Denver is still up in the 
air (pun intended). 

For this weekend, the upper level ridge will dominate our weather
through late Sunday, keeping dry and relatively warm weather in 
place. A weak backdoor cold front does push across the plains 
Saturday morning, offering several degrees of cooling but highs 
will still be 12-15 degrees above normal. Similar temperatures can
be expected Sunday. Some uncertainty exists in the temperatures 
especially in valley areas depending on amount of high clouds, but
even there we'll be starting with relatively shallow inversions so
worst case they're a few degrees below current deterministic
forecasts.  

The next chance of precipitation in the forecast arrives late
Sunday, and mostly Sunday night/early Monday as an upper level 
low ejects and weakens as it lifts northeast across the Central 
Rockies. Ensembles remain in relatively good agreement with this 
feature, but precipitation chances will depend on exactly how far 
south the best lift occurs. Right now, it still appears we'll be 
on the southern edge of the best combination of lift and moisture,
enough to bring a few inches of snow to the mountains and some 
minor travel impacts over/near the passes. The plains will likely
see scattered and mainly light rain showers, with the highest 
probability staying north of I-70. Temperatures will turn cooler 
with the passage of the trough, but latest runs showed a little 
less cooling so both Monday's and Tuesday's readings will likely 
end up a few degrees above normal.

More uncertainty enters the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday
when the next trough is forecast to arrive. There does seem to be
a trend for a weaker or faster trough that would bring scattered
light precipitation. Only a few of the runs were holding onto
anything more significant or bringing the first measurable
snowfall to Denver area (only ~20% chance). As long as that 
system stays progressive (considerable uncertainty here), Friday 
would trend toward dry but still cool weather. No matter how this
evolves, cooler and somewhat unsettled weather lies ahead which 
could quite possibly last through Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 429 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light ESE winds will 
continue for DEN and APA for the next few hours before turning to 
drainage tonight. For BJC, gusty westerly winds will continue for
the next hour, with light westerly winds behind it as the sun 
sets. 

For tomorrow, drainage winds should stick around till late 
morning. Expect a period of light VRB winds around 18Z for APA and
DEN as a weak backdoor cold front pushes through. Winds 
downsloping off the Cheyenne Ridge will likely create an 
anticyclone, which will result in winds turning from NW to SE 
gradually in the afternoon, around 21Z/22Z. For BJC, westerly 
winds are expected to persist throughout the day, with a light 
northwest push by mid afternoon. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...MAI