400 
FXUS64 KFWD 142341
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue into early next week, with highs 
  in the 80s expected.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Tuesday
  onward. Highest chances will be during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Upper level ridging will continue to drive North and Central 
Texas' weather as we head into this weekend, which means expect 
the status-quo of the last few days to persist. Morning stratus 
will erode after daybreak, leaving behind warm and mostly sunny 
days. Expect afternoon highs in the low-upper 80s both today and 
tomorrow, with isolated areas in our northwestern counties 
potentially reaching the 90 degree mark on Saturday. Lee-side 
surface lows off of the Rockies and diurnal mixing of the 
boundary layer will promote breezy afternoons over the next 
couple of days, with expected peak gusts between 20-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1249 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The biggest story of the long term forecast continues to be the 
pattern change that is expected to occur. Mid-level troughing 
will become established across the western half of the CONUS by 
the end of this weekend, setting the stage for a period of 
unsettled weather. Multiple closed lows will eject from the 
Desert Southwest into the Plains over the course of this upcoming 
week. The first of which will occur late weekend into early next 
week, but will likely remain displaced too far north to have much
of any impact other than sending a weak cold front into North 
Texas and shaving a few degrees off of high temperatures on 
Tuesday. 

A deeper, stouter closed low will eject from the parent trough 
into the Southern Plains around the middle of this next week, 
bringing us our next shot at decent on and off rain chances. Low 
rain chances are expected to start later in the day on Tuesday 
out ahead of the system, but will sharply increase in coverage 
Wednesday-Thursday as the upper low swings across the region. 
PWATs > 1.5" and long, skinny CAPE profiles will promote periods 
of heavy rain. We continue to keep an eye on the potential for 
both flooding and strong to severe storms during this period, 
though it remains too early to denote specific threats and 
locations. Nonetheless, make sure to keep updated with the 
forecast as we go through the weekend as more details will become
available in the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR to continue into the early morning hours on Saturday before 
another round of low cigs brings MVFR conditions to KACT from 
10-16Z and tempo MVFR to D10 airports from 13-16Z. VFR conditions
to return after that time with gusty south-southwest winds 
expected around 25 knots at times through Saturday afternoon. 
Winds will subside significantly after 16/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                62  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              58  84  58  82 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            60  83  61  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              62  84  63  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             61  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           63  84  63  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              60  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       57  89  58  86 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Shamburger