190 
FXUS64 KFWD 141849
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1249 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue into early next week, with highs 
  in the 80s expected.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Tuesday
  onward. Highest chances will be during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Upper level ridging will continue to drive North and Central 
Texas' weather as we head into this weekend, which means expect 
the status-quo of the last few days to persist. Morning stratus 
will erode after daybreak, leaving behind warm and mostly sunny 
days. Expect afternoon highs in the low-upper 80s both today and 
tomorrow, with isolated areas in our northwestern counties 
potentially reaching the 90 degree mark on Saturday. Lee-side 
surface lows off of the Rockies and diurnal mixing of the boundary
layer will promote breezy afternoons over the next couple of 
days, with expected peak gusts between 20-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1249 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The biggest story of the long term forecast continues to be the 
pattern change that is expected to occur. Mid-level troughing will
become established across the western half of the CONUS by the 
end of this weekend, setting the stage for a period of unsettled 
weather. Multiple closed lows will eject from the Desert Southwest
into the Plains over the course of this upcoming week. The first 
of which will occur late weekend into early next week, but will 
likely remain displaced too far north to have much of any impact 
other than sending a weak cold front into North Texas and shaving 
a few degrees off of high temperatures on Tuesday. 

A deeper, stouter closed low will eject from the parent trough 
into the Southern Plains around the middle of this next week, 
bringing us our next shot at decent on and off rain chances. Low 
rain chances are expected to start later in the day on Tuesday out
ahead of the system, but will sharply increase in coverage 
Wednesday-Thursday as the upper low swings across the region. 
PWATs > 1.5" and long, skinny CAPE profiles will promote periods 
of heavy rain. We continue to keep an eye on the potential for 
both flooding and strong to severe storms during this period, 
though it remains too early to denote specific threats and 
locations. Nonetheless, make sure to keep updated with the 
forecast as we go through the weekend as more details will become 
available in the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

All TAF sites have returned to VFR as of 18Z, and this will 
persist through the rest of today alongside diurnal cumulus and 
occasionally gusty southerly winds. Gusts will decrease this 
evening with the loss of daytime heating, but sustained speeds 
will remain around 10-13 kts overnight. South-southwesterly winds
will increase and become gusty once again tomorrow afternoon.

Expect another round of MVFR stratus to move north into the 
region tomorrow morning, impacting ACT beginning around 10Z and 
D10 closer to 13Z. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the 
coverage of any MVFR cigs within D10, so have introduced a TEMPO 
for now. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                62  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              58  84  58  82 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            60  83  61  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              62  84  63  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             61  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           63  84  63  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              60  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       57  89  58  86 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater