581 
FXUS63 KEAX 140936
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Some patchy fog remains possible yet this morning, best 
  opportunities in NW MO and NE KS. 

* Warm and dry conditions continue today and into Saturday
  - Today: Highs in the mid-upper 70s
  - Saturday: Highs in the low-mid 70s

* Elevated fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon

* Temperatures trend cooler Sunday and into next week + a couple
  chances for rain

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Quiet overall conditions have prevailed across the region overnight 
and early this morning with clear skies and prevailing southerly 
winds. Generally speaking, hi-res guidance has struggled in the 
handling of the moistening air mass advecting northward... as the 
00z HREF (and prior 12z) highlighted the potential for some areas of 
fog and/or low stratus to develop across NE Kansas into NW Missouri 
overnight/this morning. Thus far (through 3am), few signs of this 
potential, suggesting the drier hi-res solutions prevailing at the 
moment. While surface winds remain a bit too strong, 5-10+ mph, not 
completely out of the woods this morning. The previously mentioned 
favored areas for development among hi-res guidance are on the 
fringes of a surface pressure gradient weakness and Tdd are <1-2 deg 
F. The depth of moisture trapped underneath the steep inversion may 
be an overall hindrance as well. Suffice it to say typically favored 
areas for fog development (low lying, along/near rivers, etc) are 
most likely to see any, while more widespread potential is 
increasingly unlikely, and bolstered by recent HRRR/RAP runs. 
Looking into today, NBM appeared a bit overzealous on cloud cover, 
which in turn seemingly affected initial MaxT load. To combat, did 
go with a heavier blend of short-term guidance, yielding temps a 
couple degrees warmer over W/NW areas. Ultimately, of little 
consequence, and more a peek as to cascading affects. Expect highs 
largely from the mid to upper 70s across the area.

Into the weekend, warm conditions continue through much of Saturday, 
ahead of cold front dropping through the Plains. With more of an 
afternoon timing for many and strongest CAA lagging behind a bit, 
highs once again well above normal in the low to mid 70s. There also 
may be a small window of elevated fire weather concern with the 
frontal passage as while it will not initially cool temperatures off 
appreciably, it will advect in drier air and drop RH values 
potentially to around 30%. Fortunately, wind speeds are not expected 
to be excessive, up to around 15mph sustained. W/NW areas will be 
the most prone to these elevated conditions. By Sunday, temperatures 
regress towards more seasonal conditions, but remain on the warm 
side in most cases. Strongest cold air push will be experienced over 
NE Missouri where mid-upper 50s poised to prevail, warming to mid to 
upper 60s as you work back SW towards central Missouri and KC Metro 
areas. 

Into next week, a more active pattern remains favored across 
synoptic guidance. Though, that being said, it is difficult to put 
too much weight in any specific time frames for appreciable 
precipitation chances given how forecasts have trended the last few 
days. Recall, just a few days ago discussions centered around 
weekend (yes this weekend) precipitation chances ... then pushed 
back into early week ... and most recent trends suggesting more 
towards mid to late week for best appreciable precipitation chances. 
All of this ties to the handling of western CONUS troughs/cut-off 
lows. The flagship deterministic synoptic models suggest good 
agreement in the pattern evolution the next 5+ days, generally a 
series of western CONUS cutoff mid-upper lows. The first of which 
moves across Intermountain West this weekend, filling and lifting NE 
across the the Plains early in the work week. Ensemble guidance has 
trended drier with >50-70% of the 00z Euro and GFS ensembles showing 
no measurable rainfall for most of the forecast area and best 
chances northward into Iowa. Second cutoff low depicted to dive 
further south into Baja California before drifting eastward and 
eventually lifting NE. This is the system to watch for any 
meaningful precipitation as it appears stronger and would much more 
readily advect deep moisture up from the Gulf. Aforementioned 
GFS/Euro ensemble runs echo this with >70-75% of members depicting 
measurable precipitation and many of those >0.50". Being about a 
week out... expect evolution/changes in timing/track, especially 
given recent trend of 5+ day out rain chances drying out over 
subsequent runs. 

Aside from the rain chances, temperatures do look to regress towards 
normal for much of next week as the more active pattern depiction 
tends to prevent much heat from building back in. Though, the temp 
spreads are quite wide throughout the work, often with NBM 25th/75th 
percentile spreads of 12-15 deg F given the uncertainties in 
precipitation and overall handling of the western troughs/cutoff 
lows. Put another way, while temp spreads are large, the overall 
trend is cooler through the week. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Patchy fog is expected tonight mainly along and west of I 35
early Thursday morning. Outside of any fog, VFR conditions are
expected with light south-southwest winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...BT