National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDDMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX
Product Timestamp: 2025-11-14 04:27 UTC
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155 FXUS63 KDMX 140427 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1027 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential of patchy dense fog tonight. - Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through at least Saturday. -Next system arrives early next week bringing rain and potentially some snow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 The forecast continues to remain seasonably warm and quiet today as temperatures have risen to the lower 60s across much of the state this afternoon. Current temp observations look to be outperforming the raw NBM thus had to mix in NBM 75th and 90th percentiles in order to reflect this warmer trend. Meanwhile aloft, Iowa continues to remain under the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge which is moving at practically a snail's pace eastward. Embedded within this ridge at the h700 level, a region of lower pressure will progress across the state of Iowa later this evening. The passage of this mid-level wave will help influence some southerly moisture to creep up into the central plains overnight. This added moisture could potentially develop a few areas of patchy fog overnight into the pre-dawn hours of Friday. Wind speeds this afternoon are expected to decrease after sunset. Lows tonight should reach down into the upper 30s mainly north of the I-80 corridor and mid-40s across southern Iowa. Tomorrow will be a similar forecast to today. Highs will reach the upper 60s for most areas and perhaps a run at 70 across southern Iowa again but given the performance of the NBM today, blending in higher percentiles could be needed for tomorrow afternoon's highs. One caveat will be if the presence of morning cloud cover will inhibit the warmest temperatures solutions from being met. Winds will remain out of the south around 10 mph with gusts below 20mph. As we head into the weekend, a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. Conditions are expected to remain dry although winds could be breezy between 20-25mph Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Saturday and then cooling into the 50s Sunday. Our eyes remains focused on the system early next week. Low pressure off the California coastline will track across the PacSouthwest late this weekend then enter the central CONUS by Monday as a 995mb surface low. Current forecast tracks remain in fair agreement about its center tracking somewhere across northern MO into southern IA by late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Latest NBM QPF looks to keep amounts on the lower end however, there is still time to solidify p- types. A few ensemble members do hint at the potential of some light snowfall accumulations. Temperatures for the remainder of the period will range in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. There remains a low chance for patchy fog Friday morning, though areal coverage is expected to remain limited. Trends are down further from the 00z issuance and have again opted to keep from TAFs. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...Hagenhoff