689 
FXUS64 KFWD 140000
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue into early next week, with highs 
  in the 80s expected.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday onward. The
  highest chances will be during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper-level ridging will continue to dictate our regional weather
through the rest of the workweek, keeping North and Central Texas
abnormally warm and rain-free. Afternoon highs today will be able
to peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s with abundant sun and 
persistent southerly winds. With the region remaining planted on 
the western periphery of the low-level ridge as we head into the 
weekend, the northward surge of increased Gulf moisture will allow
for another night of low stratus clouds and patchy, sometimes 
dense, fog. Best chances for low clouds and fog will again be in 
Central Texas, like this morning. However, increased nocturnal 
low-level winds and 24 hours of additional moisture being pumped 
into the region will increase the chances of foggy and cloudy 
conditions in portions of North Texas during the morning commute 
on Friday. Any stratus or fog will gradually erode over the mid-
late morning hours, making way for another sunny and warm 
afternoon with highs in the 80s. A lee-side surface low will 
develop tomorrow, leading to stronger winds and gusts over the 
afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Our forecast will continue to be bland through this weekend into 
the first part of next week. Broad troughing will eventually move 
onshore the western CONUS this weekend, with the first of multiple
shortwaves ejecting from the Desert Southwest into the Central 
Plains as we near Monday. Unfortunately, latest guidance continues
to keep this shortwave and its lift removed well to our north, 
and will not do much for our regional weather. 

A deeper, stouter shortwave will swing across the Plains eastward
toward midweek, but will be located further south. This will 
spread stronger forcing for ascent across North and Central Texas 
midweek, leading to increasing rain chances. PWATs near or above 
1.5", which is near the climatological maximum value (according to
SPC's sounding climatology)and long, skinny CAPE profiles would 
promote the potential for heavy rain during this time. 
Additionally, the latest GEFS and Euro ensemble guidance are both 
showing enough instability and shear to keep an eye on any severe 
potential. Bottom line: it is too early to go into any specifics 
regarding rain amounts or severe risks and threats, but make sure 
to keep an eye on the forecast as we head into the weekend and 
next week as more details will become available the closer we get 
to the time in question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR will prevail through this evening and much of the overnight 
period with continued southerly flow across North and Central 
Texas. Another round of low stratus is possible toward daybreak 
Friday as moisture gradually deepens, but confidence in direct 
impacts to the D10 terminals remains too low to include MVFR 
ceilings in the TAFs at this time. While high-resolution guidance
suggests a window for potential MVFR cigs between roughly 11-15Z,
the saturated layer aloft remains fairly shallow and lower level 
winds are expected to stay elevated enough to limit more 
widespread ceiling development. Given these lingering 
uncertainties, the D10 TAFs retain VFR overnight with only a 
modest increase in low clouds around daybreak. Any stratus that 
does develop would be brief. 

At KACT, deeper moisture and stronger model consensus support 
maintaining the TEMPO for MVFR cigs during the most favored 
period with improvements to VFR expected by late morning. All 
terminals will see gusty southerly winds (18015G25KT) through the
afternoon with decreasing speeds by the early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  81  62  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                62  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               60  80  61  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              58  81  58  84 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            60  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              63  82  63  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             60  81  60  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           62  83  62  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              59  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       57  85  57  89 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...12