377 
FXUS64 KFWD 122335
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through this weekend, with highs
  in the 80s expected.

- Showers and thunderstorm chances return Monday onward, with the
  highest chances near the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

It'll be fairly tranquil through mid-late week as upper-level 
ridging spreads eastward across much of the CONUS. Underneath the 
subsident airmass, southerly winds and mostly clear skies will 
keep the warming trend going. Afternoon highs today and tomorrow 
will peak in the 70s and 80s. Better Gulf moisture will begin to 
be pulled northward over the next couple of days as North and 
Central Texas become entrenched within the western periphery of 
the low-level ridge. This will promote a higher potential for 
both an overnight surge in low-level stratus and fog formation in 
portions of the region going into the Thursday morning commute.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Upper-level ridging will continue to be the main driver of our 
local weather as we head into this weekend. Both deterministic and
ensemble guidance continue to back off on any weekend/early week 
rain chances, and are now highlighting the expected pattern shift 
to occur next week. A cut off low will be located in the Desert 
Southwest this weekend and will gradually eject into the Central 
Plains early next week. The main lift from this system is now 
placed further to our north, limiting much of the previously 
forecasted rain chances. A deeper trough will become established 
to our west towards mid-late next week and will advance east, 
shunting a cold front through the region. Higher rain chances are 
more likely with this mid-week system, but there is still 
uncertainty on exact timing. Continue to check back through the 
rest of this week for more details as they become available.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR will prevail through most of the period with southerly winds 
continuing overnight and into Thursday. Increasing low-level 
moisture will support a gradual rise in humidity across the 
region, with some guidance continuing to hint at a brief period of
low stratus or patchy BR across parts of the airspace near 
daybreak.

Confidence in low ceilings impacting the D10 airports remains low
as deterministic and MOS guidance keep probabilities of MVFR cigs
below 20%, and low-level winds are expected to veer south- 
southwesterly toward sunrise. This pattern is not strongly 
supportive of widespread stratus moving into the Metroplex, 
however a narrow window for brief MVFR cigs or light BR between 
roughly 13-17Z cannot be ruled out, especially across southern and
southeastern portions of the airspace. Given the low confidence 
and expected short duration, the D10 TAFs remain VFR at this time 
and any development will be addressed with amendments. 

At KACT, deeper boundary-layer moisture supports a higher 
probability of MVFR cigs and some light BR between 11-15Z, so the 
TEMPO group has been maintained here. Conditions should improve by
mid to late morning as mixing increases. Beyond Thursday morning,
VFR conditions are expected areawide with southerly winds 
increasing to around 12-15 kts and occasional gusts up to 20 kt 
through the afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  80  62  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                58  81  62  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               54  78  60  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              51  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            54  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              58  81  62  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             55  80  60  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           59  81  62  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              55  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       51  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12