992 
FXUS64 KFWD 121830
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1230 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through this weekend, with highs
  in the 80s expected.

- Showers and thunderstorm chances return Monday onward, with the
  highest chances near the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

It'll be fairly tranquil through mid-late week as upper-level 
ridging spreads eastward across much of the CONUS. Underneath the 
subsident airmass, southerly winds and mostly clear skies will 
keep the warming trend going. Afternoon highs today and tomorrow 
will peak in the 70s and 80s. Better Gulf moisture will begin to 
be pulled northward over the next couple of days as North and 
Central Texas become entrenched within the western periphery of 
the low-level ridge. This will promote a higher potential for 
both an overnight surge in low-level stratus and fog formation in 
portions of the region going into the Thursday morning commute.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Upper-level ridging will continue to be the main driver of our 
local weather as we head into this weekend. Both deterministic and
ensemble guidance continue to back off on any weekend/early week 
rain chances, and are now highlighting the expected pattern shift 
to occur next week. A cut off low will be located in the Desert 
Southwest this weekend and will gradually eject into the Central 
Plains early next week. The main lift from this system is now 
placed further to our north, limiting much of the previously 
forecasted rain chances. A deeper trough will become established 
to our west towards mid-late next week and will advance east, 
shunting a cold front through the region. Higher rain chances are 
more likely with this mid-week system, but there is still 
uncertainty on exact timing. Continue to check back through the 
rest of this week for more details as they become available.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Great flying conditions will persist through the rest of today at
all TAF sites, with southerly winds and mostly clear skies 
expected, outside of some passing high-level cirrus. 

Increasing Gulf moisture return will aid in a surge of low-level 
stratus and perhaps some patchy BR in portions of the region 
tomorrow morning, though direct impacts at D10 airports remains a 
bit uncertain at this time. MOS/NBM probabilities for MVFR cigs 
(and lower) are generally ~20% or less for the TAF sites, but the
HREF and SREF have a much stronger signal near daybreak. With 
this being the first day of decent moisture return, guidance 
having low-level winds veer a bit more southwesterly, and 
considerable spread in guidance output, have decided to forego 
putting MVFR/lower cigs in the D10 TAFs for the 18Z issuance. We 
will continue to monitor the potential for cigs in D10 mainly 
between 12-17Z Thursday and will amend as necessary. ACT has a 
better potential for cigs overnight, and have introduced a TEMPO 
between 12-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  80  62  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                58  81  62  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               54  78  60  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              51  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            54  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              58  81  62  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             55  80  60  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           59  81  62  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              55  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       51  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater