981 
FXUS63 KMPX 121726
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry remainder of the week, with weekend chances for
  precipitation dwindling. 

- Mild temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs in the
  upper 50s through Thursday and upper 50s to 60s Friday and 
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Aside from the aurora borealis show many were greeted with last
evening, all remains quiet in the southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin region. Winds will be the only concern today, and a
minor one at that. Gusts will increase to 20-25 MPH during the 
afternoon before slowing down in the evening as the surface 
pressure gradient relaxes. Area temperatures will be mild in the
50s (upper 40s central MN and NW WI). The airmass will remain 
stagnant through tomorrow until surface high pressure slides 
east into the Great Lakes. This will turn flow southerly  
across the Northern Plains, causing WAA and a strong thermal 
ridge to eventually move over the Upper Midwest by the end of 
the week. All of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin can
expect to see 50s on Thursday, but the warmth really builds in
by Friday. On Friday, areas south of I-94 have a good chance 
of seeing 60s, potentially mid to upper 60s in SW MN. The
warmth is expected to shift east and linger through Saturday, 
although to a lesser degree. Albert Lea and other cities along
I-90 have the highest likelihood of seeing 60 degrees both 
Friday and Saturday. It is quite possible this could be the 
warmest period we'll see until next Spring.

A cold front and associated trough is forecast to move through 
the Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon and will cool things down
back to normal. Precipitation chances have really dropped off
over the last 24 hours of model runs. Both the GFS and European
Ensembles have trended mostly to completely dry. However, some 
deterministic models and individual ensemble members show light
QPF over eastern MN/western WI with the cold front, so a trace
to few hundredths cannot completely be ruled out. But, forecast
soundings look pretty dry giving low confidence in actual 
precipitation. NBM PoPs have reduced to non-mentionable for the
entirety of the weekend, with the next chance now arriving
Monday into Tuesday. This being said, forecast confidence in the 
precipitation realm really begins to decline next week as 
models try to develop a messy upper-level pattern. A wide 
variety of solutions evolve within the models as each has their 
own take on weak systems moving through the central CONUS.
Taking all of this into account, it seems that any potential 
for a significant storm system is not on the horizon until after
at least mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Main issue this period will be a wind shift as a surface ridge
moves through. Basically, all TAFs have three lines, the first
has the gusts we'll continue to see today, the second gets rid
of the gusts but keeps the WNW direction, and we switch over to
the S/SE by Thursday morning. Clouds will be nothing more than 
some debris cirrus spilling over the top of the upper ridge to 
our west.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20 kts. 
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts bcmg NW 15-20G30 kts. 
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...MPG