920 
FXUS63 KMPX 120451
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1051 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry week ahead, next rain chances arrive this weekend.

- Mild temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs in the
  upper 40s to 50s through Thursday and upper 50s to 60s Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The remainder of this week looks largely dry while temperatures 
gradually warm. The only forecast concern (albeit minor) in the 
short-term is breezier winds this afternoon and Wednesday. The 
strongest winds today have been across western MN where gusts are 
near 30 MPH. Sunny skies and efficient mixing have also allowed this 
region's highs to rise into the low to mid 50s. Winds will weaken 
slightly tonight as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 
30s. For Wednesday, winds increase again area-wide with gusts to 20-
25 MPH expected during the afternoon. Area temperatures will also 
become more uniform with highs in the upper 40s to even possible mid 
50s in southwestern MN. Winds should really slow down Wednesday 
evening as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The airmass stays 
stagnant through Thursday until surface high pressure slides east 
into the Great Lakes. This will invoke southerly flow across the 
Northern Plains, causing WAA and a strong thermal ridge to 
eventually move over the Upper Midwest by the end of the week. The 
southern half of the CWA will have a good chance of at least 
reaching 60s for highs of at least one of Friday or Saturday 
(possibly both). The EPS is a little bit faster with the thermal 
ridge leading to Friday being the warmest day before a cold front 
eventually moves through. The GEFS and Canadian ensembles are a bit 
slower leading to both Friday and Saturday being warmer. This will 
very likely be the warmest period we'll see until next Spring.

A cold front and trough should move through the Upper Midwest later 
Saturday acting to cool us closer to normal for the start of next 
week. Some deterministic models and ensemble members do show light 
QPF with over eastern MN/western WI with the cold front. But, 
forecast soundings look pretty dry giving low confidence in actual 
precipitation. NBM PoPs only rise to 20% Saturday afternoon/evening 
for our far eastern counties and additional reductions could be 
possible. Forecast confidence for precipitation really begins to 
decline next week as models try to develop a messy split-flow upper-
level pattern. A wide variety of solutions evolve within the models 
as each has their own take on weak systems moving through the 
central CONUS sometime early next week. But, it seems that any 
potential for a significant storm system is not on the horizon until 
after at least mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR stratus is currently departing to the east of EAU, with
clear skies observed to the west over the other six terminals. 
Should be a quiet night ahead with continued westerly flow. 
Satellite shows high clouds moving east out of SD and guidance 
displays these high clouds continuing to drift east over 
southern MN through tomorrow. Westerly gusts are forecast to 
approach 25 knots Wednesday afternoon, prior to significantly 
diminishing during the evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind light/variable. 
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 10-15G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Strus