514 
FXUS63 KMPX 110852
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry week ahead, next rain chances arrive this weekend.

- Mild temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs in the
  upper 40s to 50s through Thursday and upper 50s to 60s Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The chances for isolated flurries is quickly dwindling early
this Tuesday morning as the shortwave moves east without much
impact to the southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin region.
Breezy southerly winds remain and will shift to be
west/northwesterly by late morning as a surface front passes
through. This will also bring scattered high-level clouds into
the region, but they will clear behind the front this afternoon.
As they clear, winds will ramp up. Western Minnesota could see
gusts to 30MPH, with western Wisconsin seeing a few gusts to
20MPH. It will remain breezy overnight into Wednesday and again
through the day on Wednesday. As surface high pressure moves in
late Wednesday, the pressure gradient will loosen and light 
winds will return Wednesday night. Winds will shift to 
southerly on Thursday, contributing to our expected warm up in 
temperatures heading into the weekend. High temperatures will 
remain at or slightly above normal for the remainder of the 
work week, before warming to well above normal (+10 to 15 
degrees) Friday and Saturday. Everywhere in the MPX CWA has a 
shot at seeing 60 on Saturday. Skies will bounce between partly 
to mostly sunny for much of the week, with scattered mid to 
high- level clouds making a few appearances.Otherwise, all is 
quiet on the weather front.

The next chance for active weather remains to be this weekend,
with mixed guidance suggesting lower confidence on exactly what
to expect. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a split flow
pattern would not bode well for those wanting any appreciable
rain. Should split flow be the solution, a drier and quicker
frontal passage would result. This would limit precipitation
this far north, impacting predominantly Iowa and Missouri. One
cannot rule out the potential for phasing (vs split flow), 
which would bring more substantial QPF to the region. Given 
these uncertainties, we continue to run with the NBM's 
widespread placement of relatively low PoPs for the multi-day 
period of Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The radar echoes near AXN continue to be all virga with both
webcams and observing stations failing to report any flurries,
and this is expected to remain the case for all sites through
the first 6 hours until the echoes move out of the region. CIGS
will start around 10kft, lowering a bit as the radar echoes move
through to around 8kft, then lifting and scattering out after
sunrise. Most sites end up FEW/SCT250 by 18z, further clearing
with SKC possible after 21z. Winds will occasionally gust to
20-22kts as they shift towards 270-300 by the end of the period,
with gusts falling off after 00z. There could be some LLWS late
in the period, but generally after 06z such that we can leave it
out until the next few TAF issuance.

KMSP...The radar echoes remain the primary concern as flurries
aren't completely out the question, however there is high
confidence that even if flurries arrive they will no cause any
impacts nor wet pavement.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. 
THU...VFR. Wind light/variable.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...TDH