095 
FXUS65 KMSO 081957
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1257 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Low stratus and patchy fog this weekend.

- Increased winds and isolated showers across northwest Montana
  Monday into Tuesday.

- Ridge of high pressure Wednesday into Friday.

High pressure is building over the region. Expect light winds,
with increasing potential for valley fog and stratus each morning
through Monday.

On Monday, a weak disturbance will beat down the ridge of high 
pressure. A breezy afternoon is forecast especially on western 
sides of valleys as mix-down winds flow down the mountains. This 
disturbance will allow for a reset on stagnant air conditions in 
valleys and, the valley fog and stratus will contract Tuesday 
morning. 

High pressure rebounds mid-week and valley fog and stratus expand
yet again as the air mass stagnates. 

While there remains timing differences for a Friday breakdown of
the ridge, greater than 80% of models support this solution. The
focus of moisture for this system is currently for north-central
ID and northwest MT. At the onset of precipitation, roughly 
overnight Thursday, there is only a 14% chance of winter travel 
impacts at pass level. That said, Friday evening through Sunday 
that probability increases to 60%.

&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies and light winds will allow for fog in the
vicinity of KGPI and KMSO Sunday morning. The more likely 
solution however is that the surface layer is dry enough that low 
stratus develops. Similar conditions are present for Sunday into 
Monday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$