079 
FXUS63 KLMK 072322
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
622 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Showers and a few potentially strong storms to south central 
   Kentucky this evening.

*  Another cold front Saturday night into Sunday will bring cold 
   temperatures and a chance for scattered snow showers. Little to 
   no accumulation expected given warm ground/road temps.

*  Cold mornings in the 20s to upper teens Monday and Tuesday will 
   be followed by dry and milder weather by mid to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 455 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

The first line of weakly convective showers and storms is over 
southern Kentucky and the Lake Cumberland region. Over the last 
hour, we have seen some better updrafts form within this line. A 
nose of uninhibited 500 J/kg of SBCAPE is moving into the Lake 
Cumberland region. The approaching line of convection, will be able 
to utilize this instability and could see some more robust updrafts 
in this region. High temperatures in this area were also in the low 
70s, which will also assist these storms. 0-1km shear is currently 
25kts and 0-3km shear is 35kts, which is ample for efficient storm 
organization. Additionally, 0-1km and 0-3km SRH is near 200 m2/s2, 
which increases the tornado potential. For these reasons, a Tornado 
Watch has been issued for Allen, Monroe, Cumberland, and Clinton 
counties in Kentucky. This watch will run through 4Z (10 pm CT).

Additionally, the first line of showers and clouds have cleared 
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. This has allowed for surface 
heating to recover the environment and bring a tongue of moisture 
along the Ohio River and SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The cold front is 
just now entering the region from the northwest. Ahead of the cold 
front, a line of showers and storms has developed and intensified 
over the last hour. This line is moving into a better environment, 
where we do expect storms to intensify. SDF ACARS soundings show 
tall, skinny CAPE and above normal PWATs, which means moderate to 
heavy rain will be possible as the line passes. With this said, 
sunset is coming soon, where instability will begin to wane, 
therefore, storms will likely lose intensity after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 216 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

As of early afternoon, a line of thunderstorms and showers 
associated with an incoming cold front was moving across the region. 
Many observations sites were in the mid to upper 60s with south
to southwest winds. Actual veering winds to the west northwest 
with the frontal passage are just north of the Ohio River 
Valley. 

Tonight, after the cold front passes, winds will remain out of 
the west southwest rather than shifting significantly to the 
northwest. By Saturday morning, winds will be nearly calm, and 
lows will range from the upper 30s to around 50 degrees. The 
Lower Ohio Valley will experience a generally west to east 
airflow as it sits at the bottom of a large upper trough 
covering most of the CONUS. With the area between weather 
systems, skies will be mostly sunny with a few high level 
clouds. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s to 
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Saturday night, a low pressure system will move through central 
Indiana, brining a cold front that will push east across the 
forecast area.  This will lead to significantly colder temperatures 
for a couple of days, with highs on Sunday in the mid 40s to low 50s 
(10 to 15 degrees below normal), and on Monday ranging from mid
30s to near 40 (about 20 to 25 degrees below normal). Overnight
lows on Sunday and Monday will drop into the 20s and possibly 
even the upper teens in some spots (about 20 degrees below 
normal).

There's a chance of light snow showers during this cold period, 
particularly Sunday night into Monday, but the forecast is uncertain 
due to inconsistent model predictions. If snow does occur, it's 
expected to melt quickly due to warm ground temperatures, causing 
minimal issues. The probabilistic WSSI has about a 30-70% chance of 
having some sort of wintry weather, and only a 5% chance of having a 
minor impact.By Tuesday, clearer skies and warmer air will return, 
with temperatures rising back into the 50s and 60s by Wednesday and 
lasting through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

The cold front has just entered southern Indiana and is accompanied 
by a decaying line of showers. This line will move through SDF 
within the hour. Another line of showers and storms is over the Lake 
Cumberland and eastern Kentucky. This line will continue to push of 
to the southeast over the next few hours. There is a very low chance 
for these storms to become strong. Between the first line of showers 
and the cold front, there is a clear of clouds. After the cold front 
passes, winds will veer slightly and remain light. Mid-level clouds 
may linger, but expecting mostly clear skies behind the cold front. 
There is a low chance for fog in the early morning, mainly at 
BWG/LEX/RGA. Have not mentioned this in the TAFs, given low 
confidence, but may be needed in the next TAF issuance. In the 
morning, winds will pick up out of the SW around 4-8kts. VFR 
conditions are expected for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...SRW