919 
FXUS64 KEWX 011248
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
748 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low rain chances (20-40%) for the Hill Country and along and
  east of Hwy 281 Saturday as another cold front moves through 
  the region. 

- Dry weather with a slow warming trend continues into early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A Rangeland Fire Danger statement was issued for Kinney, Maverick,
and Val Verde counties, effective beginning at 10 AM CDT and
ending at 6 PM CDT today. North-northwesterly winds behind a front
are expected to funnel downsloping gusts along the Rio Grande
late-morning to afternoon, beginning in western Val Verde County
by around 10 AM and reaching Maverick County by the afternoon.
Sustained winds could reach 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Coupled
with relative humidity values near 20 percent and dry fuels, this
is expected to produce near-critical fire weather conditions. 
Good moisture recovery and weaker winds in the evening are 
expected.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Cool and dry weather continues in the pre-dawn hours, but uniform SE 
winds overnight will bring in more humidity for a milder morning low 
temperature. There shouldn't be many low clouds at daybreak, but the 
late morning should see some developing fair weather cumulus and 
some mid level clouds rolling in from the north with the arrival of 
a reinforcing cold front. The shortwave disturbance driving the 
front is most notable crossing over the Edwards Plateau into the Rio 
Grand Plains in the early afternoon, so the frontal arrival could be 
a bit complicated with a stronger noted FROPA over the western 
counties. Eastern counties of Central TX will see a similar timing 
but with a slower frontal advancement over the Coastal Prairies 
south of I-10. 

The more easterly winds at the time of the front could generate a 
few surface based showers and storms and there is also some dynamic 
support for some elevated convection from the shortwave and mid 
level moisture. The timing window is in poor confidence since there 
is both a surface based and elevated level triggering of 
precipitation possible. Dynamics might have been sufficient for 
severe storms, but moisture limitations and only weak low level 
convergence will probably keep the convection more well behaved. 
Surface convection should push mostly south of our forecast area by 
sunset, but the HRRR suggest some elevated echoes still popping up 
over the southern half of our area in the evening. While this 
potential for rain sounds exciting, the potential for good heavy 
downpours on the scale of an inch of rain will be saved for the 
coastal Texas counties where low level moisture and a later frontal 
arrival will come into play. Coverage east of Highway 281 should be 
considered 15-40% which is about what most of the model solutions 
would suggest. Most of the areas that do see rain across our central 
and eastern counties can expect a trace to maybe 1/4 inch if their 
lucky enough. Most of the amounts in the 1/10-1/4 inch range should 
fall east of a Taylor to Cuero line.

As rain chances diminish evening and overnight conditions behind the 
front will not be nearly as harsh as the blustery conditions behind 
the prior front. A moderate wind mainly around 10 mph will continue 
through the night into the mid afternoon hours Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Surface high pressure remains anchored over Central and East TX into 
Monday while light southerly winds return underneath a building 
upper ridge that will keep us in a stable and slow warming trend 
through the work week. After just a couple more days with maxes 
mostly in the 70s, highs trend back into mostly the 80s by midweek.
South to southeasterly winds remain intact in the lower levels, so 
the first part of the week will be mostly sunny, but some morning 
low clouds may begin forming again by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Few changes were needed from the previous forecast. VFR ceilings
are expected despite a FROPA expected this afternoon. Some -SHRA
is possible, with a PROB30 group used at AUS, SAT, and SSF. Winds
will shift from ENE to NE to northerly by later today, with
occasional gusts up and over 20 kts possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  49  74  48 /  40  10   0   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  46  73  44 /  40  10   0   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  48  74  45 /  20  10   0   0 
Burnet Muni Airport            68  45  71  46 /  40   0   0   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  51  77  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  45  72  46 /  40  10   0   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             77  47  75  46 /  10   0   0   0 
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  47  75  45 /  30  10   0   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  47  72  44 /  40  10   0   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  50  74  49 /  20  10   0   0 
Stinson Muni Airport           78  52  75  49 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...MMM