359 
FXUS62 KKEY 311926
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
326 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025

...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light to gentle northeasterly breezes will prevail over the next
 few days.

-Relatively cooler and drier conditions will continue for Friday
 with a slight warming trend taking place over the weekend.

-A Coastal Flood Advisory (level 2 of 3) remains in effect for the
 Upper Keys. A Coastal Flood Statement (level 1 of 3) remains in 
 effect for the Middle Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with a mix 
of SCT to BKN skies anywhere between FL030 and FL070. Some light 
showers will continue in the general area, but these showers are 
not expected to approach either terminal. Northeasterly surface
winds near 10 knots will back to the north to northeast during the
overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
It has been a mixed bag of candy this morning along the island
chain, and the weather you may be experiencing depends on which
portion of the Keys you are sitting on! Automated surface
observations show most of the early morning rainfall has occurred
across the Lower Keys with Key West International Airport 
reporting just under one quarter of an inch of rainfall. Our KBYX 
radar shows shower activity tapering off over the past hour or so,
but the proximity to the last few islands of the island chain 
means we can't rule out a few more sprinkles for these 
communities. If you travel to the Middle Keys, much of the gloomy 
cloud cover is still present, but showers are just offshore to the
south. Marathon Airport hasn't reported any rainfall, but the 
nearby showers may change that very soon. As for the Upper Keys, 
some cloud cover is drifting across the sky, but Florida DOT 
webcams do show a fair amount of sunshine as well.

The 12Z KKEY sounding shows a substantial amount of dry air above
750mb, but below that we can see saturated air. Paired with the
veering winds co-occuring with the moisture, these showers are
still supported, but the gradual diminishing we have seen on radar
is likely to continue as relatively drier air is dominant. The
slight chance (10%) of rain inherited from the overnight shift
seems to be appropriate.

Temperatures near the mid 70s at this time may only come up a few
more degrees due to the moderate, spooky cloud cover in the area,
and the advertised high temperature forecast in the upper 70s may
be a close call for some of us. The current forecast does not 
need any changes or updates at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys local waters, but mariners may encounter lower
clearance under fixed bridges due to higher high tides. From
synopsis, high pressure builds in today, which will allow breezes
to continue slackening through this afternoon. As the high slides
further east towards, and over, the Atlantic, expect peaks and 
lulls in winds over the weekend. A developing low pressure system 
over the Southeast may freshen winds again for early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  71  81  72  82 /  10  10  10  20 
Marathon  70  80  72  82 /  10  10  10  20 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ076.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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