966 
FXUS64 KEWX 291043
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
543 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical to near critical fire weather conditions today due to 
gusty north winds and dry air. Cooler temperatures for all areas 
with very windy conditions for all but the Rio Grande plains. 

- Low rain chances for most areas Saturday as another cold front 
moves through the region.  

- Dry weather with a slow warming trend early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Gusty north winds continue across most of south central Texas early 
this morning as temperatures slowly cool. With surface high pressure 
over the plains of eastern New Mexico and a surface low over the 
Missouri boot heel/western Tennessee, a tight pressure gradient will 
be intact. With the onset of daytime mixing, we will see an increase 
in wind speeds across all areas by mid-morning. Based on the latest 
model data, we will continue the current Wind Advisory until 7 PM 
for all counties except those along the Rio Grande. North winds of 
20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are forecast today. A weaker 
pressure gradient for our western counties will keep wind speeds 
below Advisory levels. We do expect to see the winds drop off 
considerably right around sunset as mixing ceases and the surface 
pressure gradient weakens. It will be much cooler today with highs 
mainly in the 60s to near 70 degrees. For tonight, the combination 
of clear skies, dry air and decreasing winds will be ideal for 
radiational cooling. This will drop overnight lows into the lower 
30s to lower 40s. In the protected valleys of the Hill Country, a 
few spots may get close to freezing. After a cool start to the day 
on Thursday, afternoon highs should manage to warm back into the 
upper 60s to mid 70s as an area of surface high pressure moves from 
west to east across south central Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Good radiational cooling conditions again Thursday night will drop lows 
into the mid 30s to mid 40s.  Daytime highs on Friday will trend 
upward into the 70s as south to southeast winds gradually return to 
the region. A subtle increase in low-level moisture arrives Saturday 
just ahead of the next cold front. We will keep any rain chances 
with the next front low and limited to the Hill Country and along 
and east of I-35/I-37 as moisture return will be limited. Drier air 
behind the next front will help end rain chances for all but the 
Highway 77 corridor by late Saturday evening. We are noting some 
differences in the operational GFS compared to the ECMWF in the 
handling of an upper level system dropping through the southern U.S. 
plains late this week into early next week. Will tend to discount 
the operational GFS in showing a slower, cut-off low as opposed to 
the GFS and ECWMF ensemble mean both favoring a weaker and faster 
moving upper trough. We expect to see dry weather along with a 
warming trend, with the slightly warmer ECMWF numbers favored for 
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

The main flying issue today will be strong, gusty northerly winds.
Wind speeds have weakened slightly overnight, but will increase
again later this morning becoming 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30
kts in the Austin and San Antonio areas. Wind speeds should 
decrease to 10 kts or less by around sunset.

Winds will be lighter at DRT with less than 10 kts for the next
few hours then picking up to 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts by 
late morning. Wind speeds will decrease after sunset.

Skies will be clear at all terminals through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 AM CDT until 7 PM CDT 
Wednesday along Interstate 10, along U.S. Highway 57, and for the 
coastal plains for gusty north winds and low humidity values. A Fire 
Danger Statement is in effect for the same time period for the 
remainder of south central Texas. 

Breezy to windy conditions and dry air will continue across south 
central Texas today. Minimum relative humidities will drop down to 
near 15 to near 20 percent this afternoon. The low humidity values 
combined with gusty north winds and dry fuels will lead to near 
critical to critical fire weather conditions. The area under the Red 
Flag Warning is under dry to normal moisture. The area under the 
Fire Weather Statement is under above normal moisture based on fuel 
dryness forecast. Dry air remaining in place will lead to low 
humidity values again on Thursday. However, wind speeds will be much 
lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  45  72  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  39  71  38 /   0   0   0   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  38  72  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Burnet Muni Airport            64  39  68  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  40  69  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             69  36  72  41 /   0   0   0   0 
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  40  72  39 /   0   0   0   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  44  71  42 /   0   0   0   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Stinson Muni Airport           70  42  73  45 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-184>194-
203>209-218>225-228.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this 
evening for TXZ187-189-203>207-218>225-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM....Platt
AVIATION...05