723 
FXUS63 KLMK 271036
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
636 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Light to moderate rain over southern Kentucky this morning, and 
   light rain expected to last through the evening. Rainfall totals 
   should be less than 0.50 inches across north central KY and 
   southern IN, with 0.50-1.25 inches expected across south central 
   KY.

*  Widespread rain is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. 
   Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected at this time, and 
   locally higher amounts up to 2.5 inches.

*  Below normal temperatures, especially during the day, are 
   expected over the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

The closed upper low is currently centered over the Mississippi 
River and western Kentucky. This low will continue to push east into 
the Tennessee Valley today. Better low-level moisture is being 
ushered in from the southeast along a LLJ. Recent BNA sounding 
confirms that PWATs have increased to 1.16 inches. A heavier band of 
stratiform rain and embedded showers is moving north into southern 
Kentucky, where ceilings are lowering and some light to moderate 
rainfall is occurring. Have seen visibilities over northern 
Tennessee drop to 3SM in heavier rain. Therefore, through the 
morning and into the afternoon, expect ceilings to steadily 
deteriorate and precip to push north. Our far northern counties may 
only see very light rain, as drier air to the northeast will still 
be difficult to overcome. Total rainfall for today looks to be 0.75-
1.25 over the southern half of the region and Trace-0.5 over the 
northern half of the region. High temperatures will be in the mid-to-
upper 50s and about 8-10 degrees below normal.

Tonight, the upper closed low will begin to break down as ridging 
over the Great Lakes and troughing over New England amplifies. 
Precip will begin to shift east and coverage will steadily diminish 
as the low weakens. Low and mid level moisture will remain over the 
region, which will keep low ceilings through the overnight. Low 
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Tuesday through Thursday Night...

Omega blocking over the northern CONUS will begin to break up as the 
troughs amplify and pinch off the ridging over southern Canada. On 
Tuesday, some vorticity will remain over the Ohio Valley from the 
weakened upper low from Monday. This vorticity, coupled with trapped 
low-level moisture may squeeze out a few hundredths of light rain 
over the region. Though most of the day will be dry and overcast as 
we will be between weather systems. 

Tuesday night and Wednesday, the strengthening trough over the 
Rockies and the trough over New England will extend into the Ohio 
Valley, developing a closed upper low. From this, surface 
cyclogenesis will bring a low pressure center into the lower Ohio 
Valley. Rain chances will increase from west to east Tuesday night 
into Wednesday morning, becoming widespread on Wednesday. Moisture 
from the previous system will be in place over the region and 
southerly flow will continue to reinforce this moisture. PWATs are 
forecasted to be around 1 inch. As the low pressure move across the 
Ohio Valley, it will quickly occlude and precip will wrap around the 
low pressure as the system exits the region on Thursday night. Total 
QPF forecast looks to be 1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts up 
to 2.5 inches possible.

Halloween into Next Weekend...

The upper low and associated surface low pressure will continue to 
push off into the northeastern CONUS, allowing the lower Ohio Valley 
to dry out and overcast skies to finally break up after a long week 
without sunshine. Temperatures will continue to run cooler than 
normal, with Friday evening trick-or-treating temperatures in the 
low-to-mid 50s and some cooler spots quickly decoupling into the mid 
40s. 

Going into the weekend, troughing moving southeast into the Upper 
Midwest will interact with the upper low over New England. There is 
some uncertainty with possible phasing, though guidance still trends 
with bringing a trough through the Midwest and Ohio Valley on 
Sunday. This would bring another chance for precip to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

An upper low is moving across the lower Ohio Valley today, bringing 
bands of stratiform rain and some embedded showers. A heavier band 
of precip is working northeast and will mostly impact the southern 
half of the region with lowered CIGs and VIS this morning. IFR CIGs 
are expected within a few hours after sunrise. These CIGs and precip 
will steadily work north, reaching the northern terminals this 
evening and lasting through the overnight. Overnight, precip 
coverage will steadily diminish.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW