778 
FXUS63 KFGF 270428
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1128 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in a widespread soaking rainfall Monday and
  Tuesday, 80% chance for greater than 1" in parts of northeast
  North Dakota with isolated areas of greater than 2" likley.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

No major forecast changes. 00z cams beginning to roll in are
showing a now consistent signal for fgen across central and
northeast North Dakota Monday with rain totals exceeding 1.5-2"
looking likely through spatial extent will depend on how
transient banding is. Currently looks to more stationary than
transient in nature but a lot can change in the next 12-18 
hours still.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Winds dropping off to the point the wind advisory was allowed 
to expire at 6pm though gusts of 25-30 mph are still expected 
within the Valley tonight and another surge of 35+ mph gusts is 
possible in the afternoon on Monday. The rest of the forecast 
remains on track with rain expected to begin in the Devil Lake 
basin no later than 5am and working towards the state border by 
noon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to pick up tonight as
upper ridging moves east. A lead shortwave will start to move
out into the Northern Plains tomorrow, bringing increasing
precipitation chances. The main trough comes out into the Plains
and starts to develop into a split flow Tuesday, with the
main upper low moving well to our south and blocky upper level
ridging over the Upper Midwest. A northern branch shortwave will
dive down out of Canada into the Northern Plains on Thursday,
with the main upper low along the Manitoba/Ontario border by
Friday. Weekend pattern is still in flux with a lot of variation
between the ensemble members, but should be trending towards
northwesterly flow aloft by Sunday.

...Winds this afternoon and evening...

Gusts have been up to around 40 to 42 mph in the Fergus
Falls/Rothsay area, so expanded the wind advisory a bit further
to the southeast. There was one report around 1815Z at
Cooperstown of a gust to 58 mph but given the isolated nature of
the report and has not repeated since, have not upgraded to a
high wind warning. Bufkit soundings for the Red River Valley
counties show good momentum transfer through 5 or even 6 pm, and
could see some pretty high gusts continuing. Have the advisory
going a bit longer, although the western edge may be starting to
come down before sunset. Winds will continue to be quite strong
into tomorrow as the surface trough axis approaches, but not
confident enough to go with a double headline at this point.

...Rain Monday and Tuesday...

With the lead shortwave on Monday and the main trough on
Tuesday, there will be ample moderate synoptic lift for the
early part of the week. There continues to be a good signal for
mesoscale banding as mid-level frontogenesis sets up over
central or eastern ND. CAMs have some pretty high precipitation
totals, and agree that a narrow band of 1.5 to two inches will
be possible. At this point the highest probabilities of over 1
or over 2 inches from the HREF look to be from the western  
Devils Lake Basin into the Langdon area. However, best chances
for heavier rainfall amounts will continue to shift so will
monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Rain still expected to trail MVFR ceilings by an hour or two for
all sites with MVFR cigs for all and a medium (60%) chance for 
IFR cigs Monday at DVL with a low (30%) chance for all other
sites to reach IFR though due to visibilities dropping via rain
rather than due to cigs. Winds will be a persistent southerly
15-20kts for all through the taf period other than DVL where
winds will flip northerly around 00z Monday night at about
20kts. Other hazards include a low chance for thunderstorms near
the terminal at FAR in the afternoon and near term LLWS at BJI
though a BL that hasnt really decoupled is likely negating the
potential for LLWS to actually be realized there.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT