290 
FXUS63 KFGF 261208
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
708 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions develop today, with wind gusts up to 50 mph
  from the Red River Valley into eastern North Dakota. There is
  a 20% chance for isolated gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range.

- High confidence in a soaking rainfall Monday into Tuesday, 
  with a 40% chance for 1 to 2.5 inches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Winds are gradually increasing within the Red River Valley, and
will continue to do so this morning. Much of the same
sentiments within the Discussion with respect to windy 
conditions today remain the same, with uncertainty lingering in 
just how high wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging aloft is beginning to build east of our area, with
southwest flow aloft working its way into the Northern Plains
ahead of incoming upper troughing over the Pacific Northwest 
and Northern Rockies. This will allow for one more day of above 
average temperatures today, as well as help drive drive windy 
conditions today, including a 20% chance for 50 to 60 mph gusts.
Upper troughing digs further into the Northern Plains through 
Monday and Tuesday. Sufficient forcing and moisture lends high 
confidence in at least a wetting rainfall within portions of 
eastern Dakotas into Minnesota between Monday and Tuesday. 
Higher end amounts are forecast within this region, including a 
40% chance for 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall.

...Windy conditions today...

A tightened surface pressure gradient will remain over the
eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota today, with some slight
tightening still yet to occur. Winds will continue to increase
aloft, with around a 50kt low level jet at 850 mb centered over
the Red River Valley this afternoon. These will drive windy
conditions today, with southeast turning south winds 20-30 mph,
gusting to 50 mph forecast.

While cloud cover is forecast to increase from west to east over
eastern ND into Red River Valley, at least some daytime mixing 
is still expected with the help of background flow set by the
tightened pressure gradient. There is, however, still some
uncertainty to the degree of mixing, with deeper mixing leading
to higher gusts. Some local enhancement of southerly winds 
aided by topographic influences are expected, commonly within 
the Red River Valley and Devils Lake basin. 

The uncertainty in boundary layer mixing as well as mesoscale 
influencers help introduce the 20% chance for isolated gusts 50 
to 60 mph. Should wind reach 60 mph, there may be a need for 
upgrade to the Wind Advisory to High Wind Warning as potential 
for impacts ratchet up around this threshold.

...Rainfall Monday and Tuesday...

The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to build north and
east into Canada today, to a point where it cuts itself off as 
strong anticyclone near the southern Hudson Bay region by
Tuesday. While this occurs, upper troughing on the cyclonic 
side of upper jet nosing into the Pacific Northwest will induce 
upper troughing into the central CONUS along with Pacific-
sourced moisture. 

The strong upper anticyclone will promote a block-type pattern,
helping split energy associated with the upper trough into 
interior Canada as well as into the Central Mississippi Valley 
by Tuesday. During this transition, sufficient moisture and 
forcing will produce rainfall within the Dakotas and Minnesota 
Monday and Tuesday. While this splitting of energy will mitigate
overall strength of synoptic forcing, relatively rich moisture 
content along with mesoscale forcing will drive rainfall in 
excess of 0.25 inches, potentially as high as 2.5 inches.

Strong and persistent convergence within the central and 
eastern Dakotas will help focus precipitation near a surface 
north-to-south oriented surface trough. This convergence 
coupled with divergence aloft will also help promote fgen in the
low and mid levels. Guidance also hints as some
instability feeding into these fgen circulations. These 
mesoscale forcing mechanisms continue to lower confidence in 
how widespread soaking rainfall amounts will be, as well as the
location of highest amounts in excess of 1 inch. Should this 
type of mesoscale forcing dominate, rainfall may be locally 
enhanced while also spatially smaller near the surface trough.

As guidance reaches into convective allowing model guidance 
range, high end amounts have trended upward in excess of 2 
inches, likely owing to better resolution of mesoscale 
processes. Thus, a increase in chance to see amounts between 1
to 2.5 inches is currently advertised at around 40%. Relatively
best chance of seeing high end amounts still resides within 
central to northeastern North Dakota Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Strong winds and MVFR ceilings will be main impacts to aviation
today. Wind shear is also forecast.

Southeasterly turning southerly winds 15-25 kt gusting to 45 kt
are forecast today; highest gusts are forecast to be within the
Red River Valley. There is a 20% chance gusts briefly reach 
into the 50-60 mph range this afternoon. This includes KFAR and 
KGFK as sites holding highest winds. While winds decrease this 
evening, they will remain elevated in the 10-20 kt range, 
gusting to 25 kt, through the overnight in all locations except 
for Devils Lake basin/KDVL.

Ceilings will generally remain in the MVFR category today. There
is less than 10% chance for IFR ceilings with the exception of
within Devils Lake basin (and KDVL) after 09Z this evening.

LLWS of 40kt at 2kft is forecast at KGFK, KFAR, KTVF, and KBJI 
after 23Z this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ007-008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ