502 
FXUS64 KEWX 252346
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early
  evening across the eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and
  Coastal Plains.

- Warm temperatures through early next week, then much cooler, 
  below average temperatures middle to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

The last of the forcing in the base of the upper level trough is
approaching the Hill Country and I-35 corridor midday as well as a
weak cold front to the northwest. Development of scattered, to 
potentially numerous, showers and thunderstorms are forecast in 
this corridor through the afternoon hours shifting east into the 
Coastal Plains this evening. Shear and elevated lapse rates are 
still supportive of isolated severe storms, with the primary 
threat large hail. In addition, a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall is 
possible with individual storms. Out of caution we extended the 
Flood Watch for portions of the northeast Hill Country, I-35 
corridor, and Coastal Plains through 9 PM. There may be a 
potential to drop counties sooner.

Mostly clear and drier conditions are expected on Sunday. Seasonal
morning low temperatures are forecast with high temperatures
generally in the 80s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

A dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails next week. A deepening 
upper level low dropping south over the Plains to lower 
Mississippi Valley by mid week drags a strong cold front across 
our area on Tuesday. Ahead of this cold front, unseasonably warm
high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast Monday.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorm or two are possible along
the front Tuesday afternoon, primarily across the Coastal Plains.

Much cooler conditions are forecast Tuesday night through the end
of the week. Low temperatures in the 40s will be common Thursday 
and Friday mornings, with potentially even a few upper 30s in the
northern Hill Country. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are only 
forecast to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, Slightly warmer 
conditions are forecast Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

An area of TSRA along a line from KAQO to KGTU extending northeast
at 00Z continues to progress gradually south of east. The southern
end of this line is expected to move near KAUS sometime between
now and 04Z. Mostly isolated SHRA also developed near KSAT and
KSSF earlier today, but has only briefly and intermittently
developed further into TSRA. This isolated activity will push east
of KSAT/KSSF in the next few hours. There is considerable
uncertainty tonight in CIGs. While low-level moisture and some 
low clouds at or below FL010 appear likely between around 06Z and 
16Z at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF, it is less clear where or when BKN or OVC 
cover could materialize. Have indicated TEMPOs for IFR CIGs 
during the most likely period of 09Z to 13Z, but these will likely
be subject to amendments. VFR and light winds will prevail during
the daytime after clouds erode. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              62  83  60  87 /  40   0   0   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  82  58  86 /  40   0   0   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  84  59  87 /  30   0   0   0 
Burnet Muni Airport            60  79  59  84 /  30   0   0   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           61  87  61  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        60  80  57  85 /  50   0   0   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             59  85  59  87 /  10   0   0   0 
San Marcos Muni Airport        61  84  57  88 /  40   0   0   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   62  82  58  85 /  70   0   0   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       63  84  62  87 /  20   0   0   0 
Stinson Muni Airport           65  86  62  89 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-191>194-
204>209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM....76
AVIATION...Tran