538 
FXUS63 KFGF 252000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds gusting up to 45 mph from the Red River Valley into
  eastern North Dakota on Sunday.

- High confidence in a wetting rain early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...Synopsis...

Split flow across the central CONUS with the cut off low well to
our south and ridging over the Northern Plains. The ridging
moves east and southwesterly flow sets up for tomorrow into
early next week. Strengthening surface trough will move into the
western Dakotas tomorrow and then into the CWA Monday and
Tuesday. The trough axis moves into MN and then starts to wash
out by mid-week as a blocky pattern continues. A shortwave
digging down out of Canada Thursday will help kick the block
eastward, but then ensembles diverge for Friday into Saturday
with some solutions showing surface winds with 180 degree
differences. NBM has dry conditions and slightly above average
temperatures, and that seems reasonable first guess at this 
point.

...Winds tomorrow...

Pressure gradient will continue to tighten through tonight and
tomorrow. While there will not be cold advection and stratus
will keep the boundary layer from becoming highly mixed, there
will be 40 to 50 kts in the 925 to 850mb layer that will not
take much effort to mix down. Momentum transfer in the Bufkit
sounding have gusts over 40 kts. Probabilities of gusts over 40
mph from the HREF are over 70 percent for much of the Red River
Valley into the Devils Lake and Sheyenne basins. Wind advisory
out for most of that area. The GFS momentum transfer even has 
gusts close to high wind warning criteria in a few places, but 
will hold off on anything higher than advisory for now. 

...Rain amounts Sunday night through Tuesday...

While with split flow the synoptic lift is not huge, the models
set up a good mid-level baroclinic zone over the Dakotas for the
first part of the work week. Frontogenesis in the 700-850mb
range will be fairly strong as rain pushes into eastern ND.
Probability of at least measurable rain is 70 to 100 percent
across the entire CWA, and chances for an inch or more are over
40 percent for portions of the Devils Lake Basin and northern
Red River Valley. With frontogenesis and mesoscale forcing, the
band of heavier rain will likely be more narrow than we have
depicted, but could see some QPF of an inch or more somewhere
over our western counties. 



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Stratus moving into the southern and western portions of the
forecast area, with IFR over the Devils Lake basin and MVFR for
the southern Red River Valley into west central MN. KGFK and the
MN airports remain VFR, but think there will be at least some
period of MVFR this afternoon. Some improvement to VFR as some
mid clouds move in, but most locations should drop down to the
2500-3000 ft range by the end of the period as moisture
continues to move north on the stout south winds. Winds will
remain fairly breezy overnight, with 15 to 20 sustained and some
gusts up above 20 kts possible. Winds will pick up further by
tomorrow morning from the south to southeast, with gusts above
30 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ007-008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ001>004-007.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR