895 
FXUS63 KIWX 241036
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
636 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another cold night is expected tonight with lows everywhere in
  the low 30s.

- Temperatures moderate slightly over the weekend but remain cool.

- The next chance of rain arrives during the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Blanket of lake effect clouds holding firm generally along/north of 
US-30 as expected and keeping temps generally at or above 40 there 
while temps in the SW drop into the low 30s under clear skies. This 
trend will likely continue through the morning hours given 
persistent, cool NW flow over the still very warm waters of Lake 
Michigan. Near surface flow does begin to back slightly by sunrise 
but forecast soundings show moisture-laden inversion around 5 kft 
holding firm through at least sunrise and likely a while beyond. 
Therefore, current frost/freeze headlines should continue to play 
out well with just a few minor variations in expected temps on the 
borders based on exact cloud cover. No changes to headlines 
necessary at this point. Clouds should slowly scatter through the 
day as winds slowly back and dry air advection takes an increasing 
toll. Our far N/NE counties may not entirely scatter out until 
almost sunset though. This will keep highs near 50F there while 
southern zones make a run at upper 50s.

No major changes to the forecast for tonight. The night should at 
least start with mostly clear skies and light winds which will allow 
for quick and efficient radiational cooling. Low 30s still 
anticipated everywhere. Additional freeze headlines for IN/OH may be 
necessary for tonight if the growing season is not declared over 
based on temps this morning. Given current headlines and uncertainty 
with exactly how widespread freezing temps will be this morning, 
prefer to let day shift make the final call on if the growing season 
will officially end or if one more night of freeze headlines are 
warranted. (The growing season has already been declared over for 
all Michigan counties.)

Saturday will feature dry conditions with light WAA pushing highs 
into the mid/upper 50s for the entire area. Lows Sat night may touch 
the mid 30s in our NE half but in all likelihood the growing season 
will be declared over by then. A fairly complicated upper air 
pattern then develops with troughs over the Southern Plains and 
Quebec with a third shortwave likely diving through the Great Lakes. 
Models continue to struggle with how this complex pattern will 
evolve early next week. There are some chances for precip by Mon and 
especially Tue but confidence is very low and did not deviate far 
from NBM initialization. High temps remain on the cool side of climo 
with generally mid 50s. Lows hover around 40F through early next 
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Lake effect cloud cover will gradually erode today as approach
of anticyclone will lead to continued diminishing low level
winds. Strong mid level subsidence this morning will allow for
continued lowering of inversion heights. Confidence in any
short-lived MVFR cigs is low at this time with the lingering
lake effect, but cannot completely out that potential at KSBN 
for a brief time this morning given lowering inversion heights. 
Otherwise, VFR conditions anticipated this period. Light west- 
southwest winds this morning will become west-northwest with 
diurnal mixing today, but prevailing wind speeds should 
generally be below 10 knots. Winds become light and variable 
tonight as the upstream anticyclone settles across the region.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for 
     INZ008-009-012-014-017-018-116-203-216.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ013-015-020-
     022>027-032>034.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ004-005-015-
     016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Marsili