262 
FXUS63 KLMK 230711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Cool and dry weather is expected through Saturday. 

*  Frost Advisory in effect mainly for rural and sheltered areas in 
   southern Indiana and much of central Kentucky early this morning. 

*  Freeze Warning has been issued for southern Indiana and most of 
   central Kentucky for early Friday morning. Widespread frost is 
   also more likely Friday morning, with lows ranging from the upper 
   20s to mid 30s. Frost Advisory now in effect for southern KY for 
   Friday morning as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Quiet weather in the short term as surface high pressure builds into 
the area beneath unremarkable NW flow aloft. The main focus for this 
period will be the cold temperatures each morning prompting the 
ongoing Frost Advisory this morning, and then and upgrade to a 
Freeze Warning for much of the CWA for Friday AM. Areas not upgraded 
to a Freeze Warning will be in a Frost Advisory for that same time 
period Friday AM. Could be a little confusing for a few hours this 
morning with some counties in an Advisory now, but in a Freeze 
Warning for tomorrow, so be sure to pay close attention to your 
particular area for each morning.

Outside of that, not much to speak of in the short term. 
Temperatures this afternoon will climb out of the cellar and into 
the upper 50s and low 60s for most. Some mid to upper 60s look more 
likely for the southern CWA. Winds won't be as gusty as the last two 
afternoons, however a few gusts up around 15 to 20 mph will likely 
occur. Quiet conditions continue into tonight with more widespread 
frost, and freeze potential taking hold. Hard to tell if this will 
be a killing frost/freeze just yet, but we will have coordination 
with ag partners once the mercury rises on Friday. Likely won't end 
the growing season for our SW CWA, if anywhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Friday - Saturday Night...

After our cold start to Friday morning, temperatures will try to 
recover under mostly sunny skies. There will be some upper sky cover 
that may limit heating by a degree or two, however the real limiting 
factor will be H85 temps in 3 to 8 C range over the area. The end 
result will be lows in the low to mid 60s across the area, a bit 
below normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will be 
shifting east by Friday night/Saturday AM, however we'll likely 
still see good enough radiational cooling conditions across our NE 
CWA to support another round of frost. Will continue to mention this 
in the grids, but no need to headline just yet outside of including 
frost mention in grids.

Saturday looks dry with upper ridging starting to build over the 
area. Temps will be similar to Friday in the 60s. Saturday night 
looks mostly dry across the much of the data set, however a few 
models do have some light QPF developing Saturday night. As 
mentioned in the previous discussion, this would be associated with 
the weak mid level frontogenesis and moisture return ahead of a 
trough axis just to our north. Have some low pops in to account for 
this potential, but overall pretty dry below H7 so not overly 
confident.

Sunday - Wednesday...

A Rex Block briefly develops over the east central CONUS on Sunday 
with the southern cutoff low meandering near or over our area later 
Sunday/Sunday night. This will likely bring some shower chances to 
our area for that time, and will also mark the beginning of an 
overall wetter and somewhat dingy stretch of sensible weather 
heading into early to mid next week. Look for highs generally in the 
50/60s each day with smaller diurnal ranges at night due to 
cloud cover. Lows will generally be in the 40s. Will carry 
shower chances every day as a complex upper pattern steadily 
evolves into an anomalous closed low over the entire eastern 
CONUS. The exact evolution of this feature is in question as 
several shortwaves and TS Melissa all interact with it at some 
point through early to mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period. 
Winds should remain light out of the west to west-southwest tonight. 
Winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 6-10kts later this 
morning into the afternoon with a few mid and upper clouds at times 
through tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for 
     KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-078-081-
     082.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ 
     Friday for KYZ024-025-027>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-077-
     078-081-082.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for KYZ023-026-061-
     062-070>076.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for 
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ 
     Friday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS